Various corrections and challenges to claims about USS that John Ralfe made on Radio 4’s Today Programme this morning. (Also click here and read upward.)

July 30

Generally excellent JEP submission by @aechitty1 & Tim Wilson👇. But two relatively small corrections in comments below.

It appears, from this @USSEmployers document👇, that 6 @UniofOxford and/or @UniCambridge colleges opposed the rule change to prevent withdrawals from #USS without trustee consent.

I believe that this [@USSEmployers] slide👇 contains a couple mistakes.

July 29

Evergreen [Brexit and democracy] FB post from about a year ago👇.

Does anyone know why #USS hasn’t posted a public announcement on their website that they’re searching for a new chair of the trustee?

Has anyone seen the ad for chair of the #USS trustee? If you have, could you share it on Twitter? It would be good to know what exactly USS is saying they’re looking for.

July 25

#USS has just posted their 2019 Annual Report and Accounts.

My greatest claim to fame: being one of the subjects in the Stanford marshmallow experiment when I was enrolled in their nursery school.

July 24

I’ll be giving the Uehiro Lectures in Practical Ethics at Oxford on 27, 28 and 30 April 2020. Title: “How to pool risks across generations: the case for collective pensions”

Link 👇to @ucu’s National Disputes Committee’s submission to JEP Phase 2, recommending that “JEP refrain from any consideration of alternative scheme designs”, in part on grounds that this is outside of their remit. Comments below.

July 21

Some reactions, @iljaboelaars, to your working paper👇. Thanks for sharing. It strikes me as interesting & well-argued. But… [Ilja responds on a separate thread here. An extensive discussion and exchanges with Kevin Wesbroom, Mark Rowlinson, and others, ensues downthread.]

July 19

These linked👇 @ucu leaflets all say “If no agreement can be reached that the employers will pay any increases that arise, your contribution will rise to as much as 11.7% of salary by April 2020”. I don’t recognise 11.7% Can anyone shed light?

July 18

Given the well-deserved bad publicity this predatory, oligopolistic publisher has recently received, it’s unsurprising that @ElsevierConnect is sponsoring 👇@timeshighered’s inaugural Leadership & Management Summit in Hong Kong that @Phil_Baty & @jgro_the are attending.

July 7

If @USSEmployers accept this👇 before they know how everything will turn out, that will show that they’re willing to take a risk that things will turn out less well than hoped.

July 2

Yesterday’s linked statement by @ucu GS-elect @DrJoGrady issues these demands👇to @USSEmployers, which I compare & contrast with the union’s formal dispute letter in tweets below.

July 1

With one significant exception, which I’ll mention below, @USSEmployers Pensions Forum chair @adamtickell provides a fair & accurate account of where things now stand w/ #USS in this linked piece👇.

June 30

Via @USSbriefs I see that @Cambridge_Uni has posted their submission👇 to JEP Phase 2 on the valuation. They make a number of constructive suggestions, w/ which I’m in agreement. Comments below.

Here’s my submission to the Joint Expert Panel’s Phase 2 call for evidence on the valuation of #USS👇.

June 28

#USS has proposed a simple rule change👇 to prevent another @TrinCollCam: #USS may block an employer from withdrawing if this would undermine the strength of the covenant, to the detriment of beneficiaries.

June 27

🚨🚨🚨I’ve just stumbled upon the following👇 highly uninformative & empty response by #USS chair David Eastwood to Jane Hutton’s @BBCr4today interview.

June 26

🚨🚨🚨In an interview on this morning’s Today Programme, @ucu-appointed trustee Jane Hutton says that, as far as she can tell, her asking @TPRgovuk about #USS’s misrepresentation of their views is a main reason for #USS’s decision to suspend her.

June 25

🚨🚨🚨 It is hard to reach any conclusion other than that #USS is retaliating against @ucu-appointed trustee Jane Hutton for her whistleblowing by launching an investigation against her for alleged breaches of their code of conduct.

June 23

Scheme members, @ucu & @USSEmployers should be aware that #USS has still not provided an answer to this question that FT correspondent @JosephineCumbo has posed: “I have twice asked #USS why #TPR’s January email was not shared with the Trustee Board until May. I am yet to get a response.”

June 21

Amartya Sen, who is a former Master of Trinity College, is opposed to their withdrawal from #USS 👇. I hope he’ll be able to persuade some of the other Life Fellows at today’s meeting.

June 19

Re the following👇in #USS’s linked statement regarding the letter they received from @TPRgovuk in Jan correcting misrepresentations of their view & asking #USS to consider a public correction: … Eastwood must now therefore resign as chair…

June 18

🚨🚨🚨All #USS members should view this accurate & damning account 👇by @USSbriefs of how #USS Chief Risk Officer @GuyCoughlan continued to misrepresent the views of @TPRgovuk even after the regulator had emailed them in early January to correct them.

June 17

I agree with @aechitty1👇 [regarding the inadequacy of Universities UK’s response]

Now that #USS is about to re-open for normal business hours, scheme members are entitled to a swift answer to this key, simple question👇 that FT pensions correspondent @JosephineCumbo has twice posed, with no response.

June 16

🚨🚨🚨A new blog post: “USS should have released tPR’s statement in January and UUK should have called for this then: Sir David Eastwood’s position appears to be untenable”.

Anyone with an interest in what is happening to the #USS pension scheme should view this recording of a talk @ucu negotiator @Sam_Marsh101 recently gave:

June 15

Re @NJSHardy’s question here👇.

Tweets below on what @JosephineCumbo’s latest #USS revelations 👇 do and do not establish.

I have just posted this blog👇 which reproduces emails I’ve sent to the #USS trustee over the past few months, alerting them to, and calling them up on, USS’s misrepresentation of @TPRgovuk.

Regulator rebukes USS for misrepresenting their view on a gilts plus benchmark.

June 14

🚨🚨🚨An electronic ballot of the Fellows of Trinity College Cambridge has just opened, regarding the decision to withdraw from #USS. I’ve just posted the following open letter👇.

June 13

🚨This just-released statement👇from the chair of the #USS trustee is a factually accurate & balanced account of where things now stand & how we got here. @ucu members & @USSEmployers please read with care.

June 12

A new blog post for @USSEmployers by @kevinwesbroom, Coulthard & Claringbold of Aon, on “how close is ‘Option 3’ to the JEP’s recommendations?” Comments below.

.@USSEmployers have responded to @ucu’s dispute letter.

June 9

.@USSEmployers has posted a Q&A document👇, and has also been posting tweets, regarding their support of #USS Option 3 and their response to @ucu’s position. [In this sub-thread I correct a number of inaccuracies in UCU JNC negotiator Nick Hardy’s analysis of these employer claims.]

June 7

.@ucu issues “Autumn strike warning for universities in USS pensions dispute”. Some comments below.

Re #USS acceptance of views of @TPRgovuk, this blue-highlighted claim 👇 in @ucu’s linked dispute letter to @USSEmployers is inaccurate.

June 2

John, I think ‘cross-subsidy’ is misleading, because that term has to do with annual income flows (e.g., annual contributions for future service & DRC; pensions paid) rather than stocks (e.g., value of net assets on one’s balance sheet).

June 1

Friday’s @ucu email to members contains the following statement👇of union policy on #USS & the terms of the September strike ballot. Some comments below.

This ‘hot take’ 👇on the Augar review that I posted two days ago has now been retweeted 113 times and received 80,903 ‘impressions’ (= # of times it has shown up on a timeline).

May 30

“In putting this option forward, the USS Trustee has not articulated how it has arrived at a figure of 30.7%”. #USS explains how it has arrived at this figure in the blue highlighted👇.

Auger ‘hot take’: overall student debt repaid under Auger £7500 fee, £23k repayment threshold, 40 yr write off is roughly equal to status quo £9250, £25k threshold, 30 yr write off. But that comparable overall repayment is regressively redistributed from higher to lower earners.

“is there anything the rest of us can do to help?” Yes👇& please hurry because the deadline is today.

May 29

This #USS rule change 👇 is about preventing exceptionally wealthy employers — especially relative to their number of active USS members — from leaving the scheme when this would undermine it.

May 28

A new blog post addressed to @USSEmployers more generally: “Why USS employers should strongly support the rule change regarding withdrawal from the scheme”.

🚨🚨🚨.@UniofOxford & @Cambridge_Uni College Fellows (including @CambridgeUCU & @OxfordUCU members): please speak up & vote as a member of your governing body & support the #USS rule change to prevent a 2nd Trinity. Consultation closes Thursday.

May 27

A boycott of Trinity is important…but it needs to be supplemented by mobilisation on the part of Oxford & Cambridge Fellows to ensure that the other Oxbridge Colleges support the rule change to prevent a second Trinity.

🚨🚨🚨.@UniofOxford & @Cambridge_Uni College Fellows, & members of @OxfordUCU & @CambridgeUCU: Please make sure your Bursar or Head of House doesn’t submit another unauthorised response to a #USS consultation that undermines DB.

Is UCU motion L5 👇, which carried at #UCU2019 HESC yesterday, a call for industrial action to pressure @USSemployers to engage in civil disobedience against #USS?

May 26

Opposition by other Cambridge Colleges to USS rule change re withdrawal👇 might be just as great a threat to DB as Trinity’s withdrawal. Can you confirm that other Colleges are strongly behind the rule change? If not, could you help bring Fellows on board?

🚨I see that an emergency motion re Trinity College has been added to the @ucu HESC agenda.

🚨🚨🚨Now that @TrinCollCam has confirmed withdrawal from #USS, a new blog👇urging Oxbridge Fellows, @CambridgeUCU @OxfordUCU & @ucu HESC to ensure that employers back the rule change that would prevent a 2nd Trinity from imperiling the scheme.

May 25

I’ve just read the text of a brilliant & moving speech by @DrJoGrady. #UCU2019

This @timeshighered piece 👇reports that Auger is likely to recommend that the government replace money lost to universities when fees go down from £9,250 to c. £7,500. BUT…

Re late motion “L5 No confidence in the USS board of trustees” (@NewcastleUniUCU & @ExeterUCU composite), to be discussed at HESC on Sunday, I hope #UCU2019 delegates will consider the following two problems👇.

May 24

Congratulations to @DrJoGrady on a spectacular victory and a brilliant campaign. All the best of success in leading our union.

It’s difficult to make sense of @UofGVC Glasgow VC Anton Muscatelli’s complaint👇against the likely loss of revenue to Scottish unis from Auger review lowering of tuition fees charged students from England, Wales & NI from £9,250 to £7,500.

May 23

Update from JEP chair @JoanneSegars: “The Panel would like to reiterate its latest call for evidence and reassure all stakeholders that the Panel is on track to publish its second report in September 2019.”

There appear to be two significant problems with this late motion 👇@NewcastleUniUCU has submitted to #UCUCongress2019.

Why I think a boycott 👇 of Trinity College by Cambridge academics is justified even though they’ve behaved less dishonourably than many of the colleges of whom the boycotters are Fellows.

May 22

The incoherence 👇 of the position of the advocates of JEP No Detriment who now condemn #USS’s Option 3.

May 21

🚨🚨🚨Explosive article by FT’s @JosephineCumbo regarding efforts by @ucu appointed trustee Jane Hutton to hold #USS to accounts regarding scheme deficit claims.

May 20

What is going to happen to our #USS pensions? In tweets below, I sketch what I take to be the most likely short-term developments. I’ll try to restrict myself to claims that all sides in the GS election can accept.

🚨Last day to post GS ballot.🚨
“I think the union should be led by someone who recognises that the membership made the right decision in April in voting then to set up the JEP. So I will be casting my ballot for Matt Waddup and neither of the others.”

May 19

“Leaked: Trinity has voted to leave the UK pensions scheme. If two employers exit, staff pensions may be in uncharted territory.” Comments below.

May 17/18

A question that @Sam_Marsh101 reports to have arisen in today’s JNC meeting:

May 17

Contrary to this👇, JNC acceptance of #USS’s Option 3 does not count as “validating USS’s world-view”.

I hope @ucu members will read this thread by @UCUGlasgow President @JeanFind on her views of the 3 GS candidates in light of yesterday’s hustings:

May 16

The chilliness of the Aon statements reflect that fact that UUK & USS have been at odds, how hard UUK has been pressuring USS to achieve a result as close to JEP as this one, & the level of resistance they’ve encountered from USS.

A thread👇in which I explain why it’s not now possible to guarantee the level of contributions beyond the next valuation.

May 14

.@UniversitiesUK @USSEmployers has just published analysis👇they’ve received from their actuarial advisers @kevinwesbroom, John Coulthard & Andrew Claringbold of Aon. Reactions below.

See comment thread below this posting of a Guardian article that universities are required to compensate students for lost teaching during a strike.

May 11

A new blog: “Q. How close has USS come to implementing JEP’s report in full?: A. Within a fraction of one percent”

May 10

Why I’ve just cast my ballot for @mattwucu for @UCU General Secretary:

May 9

“The JEP has secured a good result for USS members: @mattwucu called this right; @DrJoGrady and @JomcneillUCU did not”

May 7

.@UCUGlasgow branch President @JeanFind was the author of this👇 compelling, sophisticated & well-judged case for voting Yes to setting up the JEP in April 2018. It remains the best analysis, either for or against, of that ballot offer.

May 5

Link, for #USS valuation nerds, to a long thread in which I’ve been learning a lot from @Sam_Marsh101 regarding the current valuation:

May 3

Sweden has a good state pension system. But it’s pay as you go, with benefits determined by an assumed rate of return, pegged to wage growth, on contributions. Though this is called ‘notional DC’, it’s very different from what is called DC in the US.

April 29

Today’s Monday @Wonkhe email briefing👇reveals systematic media misreporting of govt plans re EU fees. They WON’T be forced to rise to the level of OS fees. Rather, they’ll no longer be capped at Home fee levels & the accompanying subsidised student loan will be removed.

Election for @ucu’s General Secretary opens today. Below are links to informative & evidence-based posts by NEC member @drmcarley, which are fair-minded but nevertheless call out misleading claims made on behalf of candidates when warranted.

April 26

Significant but unheralded #USS news: our new @UniversitiesUK appointed trustee👇. It appears that the only public word of this is via change 17 days ago to the linked bit of the USS website that lists board members.

April 25

As UCU’s secretary to the JEP, @mattwucu has been centrally involved in protecting our pensions by bringing the expertise of the joint UCU-UUK panel to bear on #USS. His approach 👇is the most constructive, realistic & promising, so I’ll be voting for him.

Across two Twitter threads, there’s a notable divergence of views among the 3 candidates for @ucu general secretary over whether they would be in favour of a general strike for climate action and repeal of Tory legislation making it more difficult to call a strike.

April 24

More on the £19bn solution to the 2018 #USS valuation. £Xbn = long-term reliance on employer covenant = extent to which the assets in the pension fund in 20 yrs time are allowed to fall short of the assets required to fund a low risk gilts+0.75% self-sufficiency portfolio. [Link to more readable Thread Reader version.]

Last month @ucu issued this statement👇in condemnation of the terrorist atrocity in New Zealand.

April 23

Employers have gone a long way towards undoing the damage of their earlier responses to the 2017 valuation. But there remains one large piece of unfinished business, which is revealed by the following statement in USS’s recent Q&A with members👇. [Link to more readable Thread Reader version.]

April 22

The £19bn solution to the 2018 #USS valuation: [Link to more readable Thread Reader version.]

April 16

If @ucu (a) calls on @UniversitiesUK @USSEmployers & #USS to accept all JEP recommendations, including SMOOTHING of cost of future service, it can’t consistently (b) condemn @USSEmployers for underpayment of contributions in the past. See this thread👇.

April 14

The Pensions Regulator taketh away, the Pensions Regulator giveth: In defending a high 5% ‘upper bookend’ deficit recovery contribution (DRC) rate for the 2018 valuation, #USS appeals to tPR’s recently released Annual Funding Statement👇. [Link to more readable Thread Reader version.]

April 13

According to the government, a generous, inflation-proofed defined benefit pension is vitally important to the recruitment & retention of talented educators — so long as we’re not talking about higher education.

April 12

TPS has @ucu’s No Detriment policy for #USS written into its rules: no increase in member contributions or cut in pension benefits. The upshot of No Detriment is a steep rise in employer contributions & then we have a dispute over redundancies.

🚨#USS STRIKE BALLOT! This motion👇, which @ucu’s HEC passed today, implies a postal strike ballot over #USS, since it’s inevitable that #USS will impose contributions above what JEP proposed, thereby satisfying condition 2b.

April 11

If I’m not mistaken, @ucu policy is:
1. No detriment to staff pension benefits or contributions
2. RPI+3% pay rise
3. Elimination of tuition fees (at least for home students; not sure about overseas)

April 10

How will it be possible for @ucu to maintain a single pay claim of RPI+3% across the pre- and the post-92 sectors, now that we know that an uncompensated 7.2% TPS employer increase will be imposed on an already financially more vulnerable post-92 sector?

April 8

#USS has just circulated a pdf with “responses to questions we did not have time to cover during the webinar itself”. But it doesn’t include a response to the question I submitted👇. Perhaps they’re still working on that one. (See also these subthread comments by Sam Marsh and me.) [Link to more readable Thread Reader version.]

April 5

This motion that @ucu’s NDC passed today calls on @UniversitiesUK “to refuse to implement the October 2019 and April 2020 increases” & for an industrial action ballot if UUK refuses to comply. Comments below on why this motion is a really bad idea.

April 4

See @ucu JNC negotiator @Sam_Marsh101’s immediate reaction to the latest bombshell from #USS 👇.

April 3

THES piece 👇by @jgro_the on the election for @ucu General Secretary, with a focus on their views on #USS.

While we await #USS’s response to the consultation on the 2018 valuation, I’m starting a thread in which I state the limits within which their response will lie & provide my sense of the points within this range which would: (a) constitute a reasonable response which might lead to a settlement between employer & union or (b) constitute an unreasonable & intransigent response which (in part because of its unreasonableness & intransigence) would run a decent risk of provoking industrial action.

April 2

According to JEP member Saul Jacka, a 100% equity portfolio that costs £45.21 bn has the same c. 19% chance of falling short of funding liabilities of £1bn p.a. index linked to CPI for 50 years as a 100% index-linked gilts portfolio that costs £64.89 bn👇.

What exactly is @ucu’s No Detriment policy? According to the latest linked update👇: “UCU’s policy is for ‘no detriment’ — meaning that benefits should not fall and members’ contributions should not rise as a result of the 2018 valuation.”

April 1

This proposed @ucu motion 👇rests on a misunderstanding of the relation between a DB pension scheme trustee and those that appoint them. Trustees are not agents of appointing bodies with powers to ‘instruct’ them to act.

Interview w/ @RMTunion’s Mick Cash on @BBCr4today at 6:15 am today, on @TPRgovuk’s demand that railway franchise owners pour deficit contributions into the DB pension scheme that was recently in surplus. (H/T John Ralfe👇)

March 31

As we wait for #USS to finalise its as at 31 March 2018 valuation, we’ve just reached 31 March 2019, which will serve as a significant benchmark. Have things improved during the past 12 months?

March 30

Interesting chart from the statement on pay negotiations that employers released on Tuesday👀👇, which reveals that SAUL has much lower employer contributions than all the other main DB university schemes.

March 29

As @Sam_Marsh101 mentions 👇, yesterday the #USS trustee met to consider the response of their executives to @UniversitiesUK’s proposal regarding contingent contributions.

March 27

The #USS webinar from last week has now been posted👇, as well as a transcript.

March 26

If you’re among the 36% who voted against suspension of #USS strikes in May & June to set up JEP, and you STILL think the 64% who voted otherwise were mistaken, then you should vote for Jo McNeill for General Secretary.

March 23

Some thoughts on this question👇. [“If #UCU and #UUK agree but Bill Galvin puts up our pension contributions who will we be in dispute with?”]

March 22

In answering a Test 1 question, Bill speaks of what’s the most efficient route to the goal in 20 yrs time. But surely the most efficient route involves building up a surplus, which #USS refuses to do. See here👇.

Galvin says range of possible returns as important as expected returns. Yes, but #USS modelling shows that downside risk of non-derisked portfolio is essentially the same as for derisked portfolio👇.

A question I’ve just posted to @GuyCoughlan and Bill Galvin for the #USS webinar:

March 20

A well-argued & well-calibrated response 👇from @UniversitiesUK @USSEmployers to the 2018 consultation, which hones in on the most questionable aspect of the valuation — high deficit recovery contributions (DRCs).

March 19

.@CWUnews’s Terry Pullinger 👇on the government’s commitment to a new CDC pension scheme that postal workers supported by 9–1 as a key part of a pay & pensions package. CDC also enjoys strong support from @The_TUC & @FirstActuarial.

Via @USSbriefs I see that @unibirmingham has released their #USS consultation response👇. BHM’s consultation responses repay close attention, since they’re signed by Provost Tim Jones whose boss, VC David Eastwood, is chair of the #USS trustee.

March 17

Thread on whether @UniofOxford’s rejection (see PVC’s announcement👇) of Aon/UUK’s contingent contribution (CC) proposal for #USS is a cock-up or a conspiracy. It’s one or the other.

March 16

Overseas students spoken of in the language of consumers over whom businesses compete to increase their market share. Tweets like this from the ‘CEO’ of @UniversitiesUK fan @UcuLeft fires of outrage against HE marketisation. What was he thinking?

March 15

Why is @imperialcollege parroting #USS’s manifestly irrelevant response to the claim that they have misrepresented @TPRgovuk?

March 14

@UniofOxford’s #USS response 👇is hard to fathom. They reject contingent contributions but say they would accept the upper bookend if DRCs are negotiated downward as @UniversitiesUK propose.

March 11

.@JohnRalfe1 writes: “the way the annual value and total value of defined-benefit retirement schemes is calculated should be brought more into line with private sector defined-contribution pensions. That would give a more realistic assessment of the value of these schemes.”

March 10

Have any others followed @BirkbeckUoL in adopting a “code of conduct on [REF] submissions [that] would seek to ensure that it took credit only for outputs produced by staff who had left on good terms” (e.g., not involuntary redundancy)?

March 9

Wiping 2.5% off the #USS liabilities to reflect latest mortality figures would reduce the 2018 valuation deficit from £3.6 bn to £1.9 bn.

March 6

A new blog 👇entitled “On the significance of USS’s misrepresentation of tPR: It undermines the integrity of the consultation and USS’s case for an immediate shift to bonds”.

March 5

A significant & I think new statement from tPR, of relevance to #USS: “We do not assess the appropriateness of schemes’ TPs or discount rates based on predetermined relationships to gilt yields or other indices.”

In today’s FT @JohnRalfe1 provides a reductio ad absurdum of his view that DB pension contributions should be based on a AA corporate bond rate discounting of the liabilities, no matter how long & strong the employer covenant.

March 4

A new blog entitled ‘How should employers respond to the USS valuation?’, in which I offer two recommendations.

March 3

In any event, I trust that the Democracy Commission will not propose the recall of the GS by any method other than direct ballot of the membership as a whole that elects the GS by direct ballot. That would be a travesty of member-led democracy.

March 2

Strong @USSEmployers & @UniversitiesUK support of @kevinwesbroom & John Coulthard’s proposed reduction of deficit recovery contributions (DRC) from 5% to 3.5% is essential to the success of Aon’s Proposal for contingent contributions.

February 28

A summary of Aon’s contingent contribution proposal 👇, which @UniversitiesUK is circulating for consultation with @USSEmployers.

February 25

This linked note from the Independent Adjudicator of the Office of the Independent Adjudicator for Higher Education (OIA) is highly significant. It suggests that students will be awarded compensation for teaching cancelled during the #USS strikes.

February 22

In this thread I argue that an “all yields plus” TP discount rate would be just as objective as, but more accurate than, a gilts plus TP discount rate, where “all yields” includes dividend, rental, and corporate and emerging bond yields as well as the gilt yield.

February 20

Re @Derek_Benstead’s proposal 👇(with which I believe @Sam_Marsh101 is sympathetic). And see also this subthread exchange with Sam Marsh.

February 18

#USS has just released a document on contingent contributions👇. I’m now reading it. Comments below when I’ve finished reading.

“Rich students save by paying fees up front”. 10% of students (16% Oxbridge, 20% KCL) pay £9.25k fees up front to avoid 6.3% interest rate. Akin to being able to purchase a house w/ cash up front rather via a mortgage because one is wealthy enough.

February 16

A new blog entitled “Does USS’s valuation implement JEP in full?: Yes, with one exception which it’s hard to fault them for rejecting”.

February 12

If they investigate the details, it will become manifestly clear to the #USS trustee that their executives have failed to provide an adequate response to the critique of “large and demonstrable mistake” over Test 1 arising from @Sam_Marsh101’s asset projections.

An intriguing piece on how local authorities are replacing the austerity-driven 60% cuts in central govt grants since 2010 with unlimited low interest (gilt yield) loans from the central govt.

February 11

I hope @USSEmployers & scheme members take a few moments to read this interview👇w/ Paul Myners in @TheActuaryMag, whose URL appropriately includes the words “interview-challenging-convention”.

February 10

The current @ucu ballot for NEC members, Vice President & other officers is very important. It will determine the balance of power of a divided union & the direction it takes over a number of issues. I’ll focus on one issue in tweets below.

February 8

A new blog👇entitled ‘USS must be planning for the possibility of DB scheme closure in 20 rather than 40 years’.

February 7

#USS’s impending decision regarding automatic triggers will be a test of the sincerity of the hopes they had earlier repeatedly expressed that it will be possible to avert large contribution rises in October 2019. See their initial 13 Sept response to the JEP report👇.

February 4

If USS executives attempt to trigger an automatic rise in contributions in the event of a specified increase in ‘reliance’ (aka the ‘self-sufficiency deficit’) during the next three years, the trustee board must intervene and stop them.

Does anyone know the discount rate & equity/bond ratio of the CPP fund? And are US Social Security contributions set based on a discount rate (like, e.g., UK PAYG public sector schemes, discounted at expected long term growth in economy)?

February 1

#USS’s decision 👇to lower deficit recovery contributions (DRCs) from 6% to 5% in the just-completed 2017 valuation sets a useful precedent which will place pressure on them to lower the upper bookend 5% DRCs for the 2018 valuation.

January 31

In a thread started by @USSbriefs, @ucu-appointed JNC negotiator @Sam_Marsh101 says this [but outrage over USS’s valuation in response to JEP should be tempered by a key passage in the JEP report] And see also my reply to Sam Marsh’s response.

January 27

Here I boil down a number of previous tweet threads into an 8 point blog post called ‘The difficulty in achieving a No Detriment valuation that incorporates JEP in full’.

January 25

Why I disagree w/ @ucu-appointed JNC member @Sam_Marsh101’s view 👇 that “It’s unforgiveable that USS are not attempting to implement [in full] what JEP advised.”

January 24

Those of us who have been arguing that #USS’s liabilities should be discounted based on expected returns of a portfolio weighted towards return-seeking assets should take a few minutes to read this, for how such an approach can go badly wrong.

The latest communication on #USS from @ucu headquarters provides an informative & realistic account of where things now stand, the union’s stance, & how it is pressing for, & the obstacles to, its realisation.

#USS is much more analogous to LGPS than to the typical closed DB scheme that tPR regulates. USS should forego its nearly worthless PPF protection in exchange for a right to be funded & regulated along lines of LGPS.

January 21

Click here and read upwards for a thread in which I argue that younger workers should pay lower contributions than older workers, as a percentage of their salary, for a CARE DB pension. (See also various other tweets scattered through the thread, including this one: Simple solution is age-insensitive CARE with 1/x accrual of active members revalued somewhat below the best estimate long term returns on which the target pension is based. Somewhat below to take account of the fact that younger members are expected to live longer.)

January 15

.@Aon’s advice to employers has just been released. @kevinwesbroom is one of the authors. [Aon is UUK’s actuary.]

January 12

How could employers implement JEP in full, including no automatic triggers for this valuation, in order to achieve No Detriment? Necessary condition is removal of their current trustees & replacement w those whom they think will vote for such full implementation.

Each day leading up to the launch of #USS’s new valuation, I re-tweeted the following question: WHAT ARE YOUR GROUNDS FOR REFUSING TO ALLOW THE SCHEME TO RUN A SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS? See embedded thread for context.

January 8

In their new valuation #USS continues to make a “large and demonstrable mistake” in applying Test 1, which they now ineptly try to explain away by contradicting past statements (see embedded thread).

January 5

#USS provides blinkered, inaccurate, exaggerated measures of risk in their consultation document, all three of which are tied to the gilt yield. More comments below.

Thoughts on how difficult it will be for @ucu & @UniversitiesUK to reach an acceptable settlement under #USS’s latest valuation.

January 4

#USS contradicts itself in its latest attempt to answer the critique arising from @Sam_Marsh101’s findings regarding expected asset level 20 years hence. See the following highlighted passage from p. 12 of the consultation document on the 2018 valuation:

#USS has released their consultation on the 2018 valuation. Headline figure is that the best case scenario they’re offering to members is a 3.7% increase in contributions to preserve the DB & DC status quo (minus the 1% match).

Grayling blames RPI increase in wages of rail workers for the rise in fares by RPI:

January 3

.@UniversitiesUK employers have overwhelmingly agreed to JEP modelled +2.1% rise in employer contributions (along w/ +1.1% member) to preserve DB & DC status quo (minus the 1% match), so long as USS & tPR agree and this is not tied to unreasonable automatic triggers.

January 1

Re this tweet by @Kiffmeister asking why “the hoped-for return on assets held by the scheme should be used to discount the scheme’s liabilities”.

2018

December 30

Even with CPI + 1.5% revaluation, that’s still less than the SCAPE discount rate. Hence, younger members are overpaying. It is only with the recent shift to CARE that younger members overpaying in a DB scheme has become a significant problem.

Question to @JohnRalfe1 in mid-July

December 26

Here Woon illustrates the fundamental flaw in @JohnRalfe1’s approach to the valuation of a DB pension scheme:

December 23

Lack of justification for 20 yr shift of portfolio to bonds (dignified w/ label ‘de-risking) provides the strongest case for breach of duties to act in interests of beneficiaries, IMHO.

December 21

USS employer contributions for pre-92 expected to rise by at least 2%. TPS employer contributions for post-92 by 6–7%. Augar expected to recommend cut in tuition fees from £9k to c. £7k.

.@FirstActuarial’s advisors for @ucu @RedActuary & @Derek_Benstead would sign off on all JEP recommendations as prudent if they were scheme actuaries for #USS:

December 20

The fundamental problem w/ the #USS valuation is that they have two funding targets, & their unjustified choice to meet the one target precisely renders it prohibitively expensive to meet the second target as well. More details in tweets below.

December 18

@USSEmployers has just posted the linked letter from Bill Galvin to @AlistairJarvis, rejecting a @UniversitiesUK call for a lowering of deficit recovery contributions from 6% to 2.1% for the 2017 valuation.

Here is @ucu’s latest statement to members on #USS

December 17

ONS report on student loans is released (and see also responses to Q for @amcgettigan & @TorstenBell: Would abolishing tuition fees & replacing w direct govt spending on universities that results in their receiving the same amount as now really increase deficit by only £4 bn over the current loan system under the new accounting rules?)

December 15

Here I’m starting a separate thread which discusses the leaked Xafinity @TrinCollCam’s assessment of #USS and the risks of DB for the sector as a whole, rather than @TrinCollCam in particular.

December 14

A new letter from the Pensions Regulator on #USS [with my comments in tweets below]:

December 12

#USS Chief Risk Officer @GuyCoughlan recently emailed me a further response to my blogs on the implications of @Sam_Marsh101’s findings regarding asset projections and Test 1. I link to, & comment on, Guy’s latest response in this blog I’ve just posted

December 11

#USS reveals that over 1,300 of the 4,333 individual responses (>30%) to the #USS consultation on Rule 76 contribution increases made use of @USSbriefs’s ‘resile and resubmit’ template!

December 8

Trinity College, Cambridge (@TrinCollCam) plans exit from #USS. A few thoughts below.

December 1

Bill Galvin’s latest linked @Wonkhe piece indicates no shift of position from 22 Nov #USS statements. Disappointingly, the passage below repeats his commitment to the imposition of automatic triggers.

November 30

Very sensible for @TPRgovuk to regulate Beefeater DB pensions out of existence. The Tower of London they guard was founded only as recently as 1066 & has been a popular tourist attraction only since Elizabethan times. Could go bust at any moment.

November 27

Re JEP proposals, #USS 22 Nov statement says they will “[a] consider the scale of the additional financial risks involved, and [b] the ways and means by which employers are willing and able to fund the risks that the Trustee could contemplate taking.”

November 25

A hypothesis re @UniversitiesUK’s push to 100% DC: UUK realised that the Tory 50% turnout threshold to authorise strikes would be repealed as soon as Labour returns to power, which might well be by the next triennial valuation.

For what sort of pension scheme would a fall in the gilt yield during the next few months be such a problem that the trustee and tPR should legally bind employers now to raise contributions before the next valuation in the event of such a fall?

November 24

I was surprised by the claim that TUITION FEES SUBSIDISE RESEARCH, attributed to @UofGVC Anton Muscatelli in today’s linked Telegraph article regarding a possible cut in Home/EU tuition fees from £9,250 to £6,500

Thanks, @USSbriefs, for drawing this to our attention. It’s disappointing that it takes someone’s (not my, incidentally) anonymous submission to @AcFreedomWatch to get LSE’s (@LSEnews) submission to the JEP consultation into the public domain.

This piece by Gregor Gall is over a year old. But it provides a useful account of how, despite such a large group of workers spread throughout the country, the CWU was able to achieve a huge 74% turnout, 89% of whom voted in favour of industrial action

November 23

This @ucu resolution, which their NEC passed today, is described as “unifying”.

In his linked blog post on the new valuation, #USS CEO Bill Galvin offers the following accurate account of @ucu’s actuary @FirstActuarial’s approach to the valuation of the DB scheme [Link to more readable Thread Reader version.]

November 22

#USS’s obsession with short term risk and reliance, plus legally enforceable triggers, can be fairly directly traced to tPR’s linked 2017 DB annual funding statement, which was released in May 2017. [Link to more readable Thread Reader version.]

#USS’s statement confirming that they will be conducting a new valuation as at 31 March 2018 [Link to more readable Thread Reader version.]

November 21

Thanks to @Sam_Marsh101 for alerting me that @ucu has just released a paper from @FirstActuarial which assesses his critique of #USS over Test 1 arising from his modelling of the valuation, and which I have pressed and developed in my blog posts

November 17

I would also welcome LSE’s (@LSEnews) public posting of their submission. Our management has posted to an internal website, without alerting staff. @LSE_UCU has circulated a link & summary to members, but we lack permission to make this public.

November 14

Those MP’s who studied PPE are among the most in favour of remaining in the EU. Those who studied Philosophy, but not combined w/ other subjects, are among the most in favour of Brexit (Leave). Not sure what lessons to draw.

November 9

Right. Even if this consultation all goes smoothly for Royal Mail & CWU, it would still be a while before this will become possible for a multi-employer scheme such as USS. DWP appears, however, to be fairly receptive to eventual extension to multi-employer schemes:

This is good news that “it is clear that there is support from most employers for the JEP’s recommendations, subject to further details about risk and a favourable response from the USS Trustee and The Pensions Regulator”.

November 8

Re the @ucu Manchester conference, the afternoon session on #USS was inquorate, and hence any of the linked motions that passed were advisory rather than becoming official union policy. [Link to more readable Thread Reader version.]

November 7

Oxbridge notorious among the abusers. E.g., Praefectus of Holywell Manor was a post that Balliol Fellows cycled into during their 3 years prior to retirement in order to receive a boost to their FS pension.

November 6

Alternatively, it, and WinRS, as well as career average rather than final salary, are much less costly means of managing employer risk than USS’s proposed shift into bonds. CDC has the strong backing of TUC and First Actuarial (link) for that reason.

As I mention in this linked thread, @ucu’s policy regarding #USS will be determined in a conference in Manchester tomorrow. There I comment on a number of motions. Below, I detail my reservations over Motion 5 in particular.

November 5

Alerting #USS members: today, tomorrow, & Wed are important days, since @ucu’s position re #USS & JEP proposals will be set by the end of special sector conference Wed afternoon. By noon today, we should learn what motions have made it onto the agenda (see highlighted):

November 4

Some comments on @UniversityLeeds’s recently released #USS documents (tagging @leedsucu & @zenscara). First, here is a link to @USSbriefs’s posting on Leeds’s submission to the JEP consultation.

I now believe that, if #USS releases comparable data regarding the 2014 valuation, it will reveal a similar mismatch between Test 1 assets & liabilities to the one that @Sam_Marsh101 has uncovered w/r/to the 2017 valuation.

November 3

In their linked submission on the JEP report, Imperial College makes a strong call for greater transparency from #USS. “This issue must be addressed as a priority.”

November 1

.@Sam_Marsh101 #USS has now released cashflow projections (see link). Now that they have made these public, would it be possible for you to release a version of your spreadsheet that includes these? [Link to updated spreadsheet.]

October 31

A good, informative update from Matt Waddup of @ucu on #USS. I especially welcome point 6 regarding ongoing discussion with actuaries and employers regarding problems with Test 1 that have come to light.

𝗨𝗦𝗦 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝟯𝟭 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟴 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗲𝗱𝗲 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟳 𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝘂𝗹𝗲 𝟳𝟲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 (as announced to employers in letter dated 23 October).

October 30

While exhausting and time-consuming, for me it’s an extension of, rather than a distraction from, my academic work. It’s grounded in one of the central ideas of John Rawls: justice as fairness as…

𝗪𝗵𝘆, 𝗶𝗻 𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗵𝘂𝗴𝗲 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝟭 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗽, #𝗨𝗦𝗦 𝗺𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝘀𝘂𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝟭𝟬.𝟰% 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀. Here is JEP report’s useful diagram of USS’s Test 1 Rube Goldberg device:

October 29

This comes as another pleasant and surreal surprise! I’m one of three finalists for the linked @Wonkhe “Wonk of the Year” award, for my blogs on #USS. I love the connection they draw to the discipline of philosophy.

October 28

Further confirmation [via reference to USS’s own video explanation of Test 1] of #USS’s “large and demonstrable mistake” regarding Test 1. See this chart prepared by @Sam_Marsh101 for Sheffield’s USS Working Group. The important figures are in row 1.

October 27

A new blog post, in which I respond to a query by @kevinwesbroom regarding @Sam_Marsh101’s and my critique of USS on Test 1 which arises from Sam’s findings.

October 22

The discount rate for the pay-as-you-go Teachers Pension Scheme tracks OBR long term forecast of the growth of the economy (as proxy for tax revenue). With the impending folly of Brexit, these forecasts are justifiably lower than they would otherwise be.

See screenshot of Robin Ellison’s linked critique of #USS’s & @TPRgovuk’s”self-sufficiency” approach, which “measure(s) liabilities by reference to the value of government securities”.

Do you realise, @JohnRalfe1, that #USS already employs the “expected return on assets” approach to setting the discount rate? In this regard, JEP is not recommending something that USS doesn’t already employ.

October 21

“𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗠𝗔𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗜𝗔𝗟 𝗘𝗩𝗜𝗗𝗘𝗡𝗖𝗘”: Remember this statement from #USS to FT pensions correspondent @JosephineCumbo?:

October 20

And I’ve already demonstrated how confused John [Ralfe]’s own answers to his own two questions are:

October 18

I like these comments by @dsquareddigest on the “@Sam_Marsh101 critique”. Daniel is an equity analyst in the City who blogs for Crooked Timber in his spare time….

Brilliant! (Downfall video caption thread.)

I’ve just posted the following further defence of the critique arising from @Sam_Marsh101’s findings, in response to #USS’s latest (16 Oct) attempt to answer this critique. 𝗣𝗟𝗘𝗔𝗦𝗘 𝗥𝗘-𝗧𝗪𝗘𝗘𝗧 𝗪𝗜𝗗𝗘𝗟𝗬!

Please read & re-tweet this embedded thread from UCU-appointed JNC negotiator @Sam_Marsh101. I once had a lot of respect for the professionalism of #USS executives & the quality of their work.

October 17

FT pensions correspondent @JosephineCumbo’s reporting of harsh criticisms of #USS, which have them reeling, now features as the most recent piece in the “USS latest” section of @ucu’s website!

Superb analysis by @USSbriefs of how #USS’s failure to provide timely answers to questions by @Sam_Marsh101 & his Sheffield employer “raise profound questions about Scheme governance and about UUK consultations.”

October 13

As promised, a new blog post: “USS’s valuation rests on a large and demonstrable mistake: when corrected there is no deficit as at 31 March 2018 and no need for detrimental changes to benefits or contributions”. 𝗣𝗹𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗿𝗲-𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝘁. (It has been retweeted over 850 times.)

.@Sam_Marsh101 I’m now writing up a blog on the significance of USS’s confirmation of your analysis. A fact-checking question: Has USS confirmed the accuracy of your column 2, row 1 yr 20 TP liabilities figure?:

October 12

I think @Sam_Marsh101 would agree with me that the fault lies with #USS & not at all w/ the Joint Expert Panel.

#USS has confirmed @Sam_Marsh101’s analysis that, on a proper understanding of Test 1 — in fact, #USS’s own understanding — no de-risking of the DB portfolio is called for!

Would the @UniversitiesUK & @ucu trustees (e.g. @UofGVC & @Daveguppy) who jointly govern #USS (controlling majority) urgently instruct #USS executive (e.g., @GuyCoughlan) to respond to JNC member @Sam_Marsh101’s request? (Two hours later, USS emailed Sam a response to his request.)

October 10

I’m sure that #USS has done the calculations, and they’ve also made a calculation that it would not put their current valuation in a good light to release them. So we can infer that @Sam_Marsh101’s calculations are either broadly correct or understate asset growth.

October 6

.@UCL_UCU has responded on Twitter to my linked blog post “Questions for advocates of No Detriment”. Below I expose two problems with their response. (Link to more readable Thread Reader version.)

October 5

He doesn’t mention USS, but it provides a perfect example of the need for universities to collaborate rather than try to cut down to size through competition. Remember this infamous passage from @Cambridge_Uni’s submission to the Sept consultation?:

I have a more positive take on the USS statement:

October 3

A query for @UCL_UCU regarding their tweet below: If employers call for a cut to DB accrual from 1/75 to 1/80 in order to keep employer contributions down to 19.3% on a 65%/35% employer/member cost-sharing basis, would that also be consistent, in you view, with acceptance of the JEP recommendations in full?

In general, I think @Sam_Marsh101’s presentation is really impressive. Two small quibbles.

It has been over a month since @Sam_Marsh101 submitted his Addendum to the JEP and #USS. If he’s right, the current valuation contains a significant, hidden layer of prudence ABOVE AND BEYOND the following that JEP lists here:

October 2

According to @AlistairJarvis’s @UniversitiesUK’s initial (linked) response to the JEP report, any solution for #USS is likely to require “some moderate adjustment to benefits” among other changes.

September 30

Regarding the force of the case for protecting DB below the salary threshold over DC above the threshold, I don’t even mention indications that there will be another big hit on pension tax relief at the autumn budget.

September 29

.@Cambridge_Uni’s response to a 2016 consultation re strength of the #USS covenant has recently been released via FOI. Cambridge disputes PWC’s finding of a strong covenant over 30 as opposed to merely 20 years! The following statement in their response is a bombshell:

September 24

.@UniversitiesUK has just published the consultation document on the JEP report that they’ve sent to employers. (Link.) Some ‘live-tweeting’ of my reactions as I read this document in real time. (Link to more readable Thread Reader version.)

September 19

Please read this thread (esp my 17-tweet string farther down) on how @ucu pushing for employers to absorb all 3.2% of JEP contribution increases would simply give employers cover to argue that cutting DB from 1/75 to 1/80th is also consistent w/ JEP:

September 18

A blog in which I argue for the importance of acceptance in full by union and employer of the proposals of the Joint Expert Panel on #USS. Further remarks below on the graphed 65%-35% employer member split of contribution increases.

Raised eyebrows over UCL Provost’s email re stock market & #USS deficit. In addition to @Will_McDowall see tweets by @vdiazucl @felicitycallard @UCL_UCU @USSbriefs. Thoughts below.

September 16

.@carlomorelliUCU, who is an elected JNC negotiator for @ucu, is circulating the linked open letter calling “for the employers organisation UUK to pay the full 3.2% of additional contributions proposed by the JEP [Joint Expert Panel]”.

#23 of 50 on this list comes as a pleasant surprise. https://wonkhe.com/he-powerlist-2018/

September 15

A new blog post, which elaborates on the significance @Sam_Marsh101’s JEP Addendum, while noting that his findings were too late to be incorporated into their report.

A branch of the union, @UCL_UCU, has retweeted this claim of one of their members, that employers were ‘basically stealing’ when they reduced their contributions to 14% from 1997 to 2009.

September 13

My live-tweeting of my reactions to the 112 page USS Joint Expert Panel report as I read the report. (Link to more readable Thread Reader version.)

September 11

USS CEO Bill Galvin’s old job as CEO of tPR is being advertised, with a salary of £222,500.

September 10

Given that @ucu is happy to take stances on political issues (e.g., condemnation of IHRA definition of anti-semitism), it’s regrettable that the union refrained from taking a stance on Brexit, despite the fact that c. 90% of members opposed Brexit.

September 9

This linked #USS document that was posted about four days ago reveals that the dramatic reduction in the FRS 102 deficit from £17.5 bn in 2017 to £8.4 bn in 2018 was almost entirely down to two things:

September 6

.@ProfJohnKay & Mervin King have written this wonderful critique of DB regulation in the UK:

September 5

Calling all #USS members: Please read this, weep, and then retweet. “Why can’t USS provide us with a DB pension as good as SAUL’s?”

Re this call for increased transparency & openness in @livuninews Dame Janet Beer in her linked @UniversitiesUK speech….

September 4

This piece in @Wonkhe calls for post-qualification uni admission (PQA). It links to a @ucu study that maintains that “PQA is the global norm : England, Wales & Northern Ireland are real outliers”. The study appears to have a big flaw.

September 3

Consultation on #USS contribution increases opens today. Their website is now live (link). Some differences, on which I comment below, between what’s on the website & what’s in the hard copy consultation document that we’ve received in the post. (Link to more readable Thread Reader version.)

September 2

Link to @Sam_Marsh101’s well-documented, sound & explosive addendum to his JEP submission, which reveals a serious failure on the part of #USS to apply Test 1 properly, in a manner that makes sense of its underlying rationale (Link to more readable Thread Reader version.)

August 30

A thread on Test 1 and the significance of the level of assets in the scheme versus the technical provisions discount rate at year 20. Most of the useful information in the thread is contained in this long exchange with Sam Marsh in this subthread.

August 27

𝗔 𝗗𝗜𝗟𝗘𝗠𝗠𝗔 𝗙𝗢𝗥 #𝗨𝗦𝗦, in tweets below, which arises from my posts on the recent history of the scheme (see embedded blog)

Two tweet threads in defence of the high level and low cost of public sector pensions: (1) First thread in response to Alan Higham; (2) Second thread in response to John Ralfe (you will need to read both upward and downward from this tweet).

August 26

A problem with @JohnRalfe1’s JEP submission: 4.5 is non sequitur. It doesn’t follow from 4.4:

A problem with a ‘tontine’ longevity credit proposal

August 25

Here I distill my threads of the past few days into a single message: the @FirstActuarial & @ucu approach to the investment and valuation of #USS is not some radical new theory. Rather, it’s in line with the way #USS used to run things, before Bill Galvin took over as CEO.

August 24

Cost-sharing consultation document sheds light on role JEP might play. See this passage. Comments below.

Click here for scans of #USS’s cost-sharing consultation document. In comments below, I mention a couple things that surprised me.

Here is @ucu’s headline statement in their strike leaflet (linked): “Since 2009, the cumulative loss to your pay (compared to rises in RPI) is 21.0%.” (This is a continuation of a thread from 15 August.)

August 23

A Joint Review Group (JRG) of employer and union representatives was set up in 2008. Back then #USS offered “its full support to the group, in terms of PROVISION OF DATA [my emphasis] and scheme information, as it makes its deliberations.”

August 22

As this graph shows, #USS has already engaged in extensive ‘de-risking’ of its portfolio from equity into bonds during the past 10 years. Calls from @FirstActuarial and @ucu for a cancellation of plans for further de-risking should be assessed in this context.

August 20

If @Sam_Marsh101’s explanation is right, turns out #USS’s Sept valuation already built in prudence w/r/to assumed +1.5% gilt yield reversion, so Nov speeding up of de-risking to yr 1 was overkill

August 19

The regs in force during 14% ‘contribution holiday’ made it possible for #USS to run the scheme in the manner that @FirstActuarial & @ucu now recommend. That’s what they did! More below on @USSbriefs JEP submission by @deepa_driver

August 18

W/ @deepa_driver’s JEP submission, it appears to me, on closer inspection, that @USSbriefs has gone back in time & devoured the children of their own, i.e., @FirstActuarial’s & @Dennis_Leech’s, recommended approach to the #USS valuation!

August 17

A reason why @Sam_Marsh101 may be right re significance of @deepa_driver’s @USSbriefs: a few months ago, #USS removed valuations pre-2011 from their website. They were asked to restore them, but they didn’t. Why did they remove them and not restore them?

Re this passage from the linked @USSbriefs manifesto … Please click here and then scroll down for my review and assessment of the @UniversitiesUK’s ‘wide range of evidence sources’

Generally excellent submission to Joint Expert Panel by Richard Farndale and @CambridgeUCU. Some comments below.

August 16

.@PJTheEconomist just made a compelling case on the Today Programme for the use of RPI as the interest rate on student loans.

August 15

Are there any good defences of the use of RPI unstripped of the Carli formula (i.e., RPI rather than RPIJ) as a sound measure of inflation?

Below are updated graphs I’ve made, which show how much salaries of university employees have fallen in real terms, by different measures of inflation, during the last 20 years. (See also this Facebook post, which contains links to earlier posts on inflation and the pay negotiations.)

August 13

Brexit and @UCU: the union will “consult with members on whether UCU should support a second referendum on any final Brexit deal negotiated by the UK government”.

A graph of #USS employer & member contributions, as % of salary. Starts with 1975 foundation of scheme. Ends with ‘cost-sharing’ increases for 2019–2020, on which consultation opens in early Sept.

Rise in rail fare linked to a flawed RPI measure of inflation that is in its death throes

August 12

As Keynes said: “When I find new information I change my mind; What do you do?” Labour voters share this sensible approach. Unfortunately, the leader of their party doesn’t.

For a clear explanation of the manner in which the Financial Economics (FE) approach to DB funding involves a conceptual confusion and conflation of two very different types of valuation, click here

August 10

Questions to USS regarding the influence the JEP September report could possibly have on the 2017 valuation

August 9

An important statement from a USS trustee! (regarding employer risk attitude — a short thread to which I might add)

ATTENTION MUST BE PAID to a tension between statements to FT’s @JosephineCumbo from (1) #USS and (2) @TPRgovuk

August 8

Some highly significant #USS news from @JosephineCumbo re @TPRgovuk: She has elicited a clarifying statement from them which “tells us that USS’s actions a fortnight ago enabled it to avoid a contribution plan being imposed on it by the Regulator.”

Some thoughts below on this interesting @USSbriefs thread which ends with this tweet: ‘But alarmist in our interpretation of UUK’s allusion to those possible legal options that may cause the breakup of #USS? We don’t think so. ’

August 7

Query to the @FT re 1st sentence of linked piece on #USS by @KateBeioley_FT (cc @JosephineCumbo). Sentence reads: “Members of the UK’s largest pension scheme will need to increase their contributions by nearly 4% points to help plug its £8.4bn accounting deficit, unless they can come to an agreement with their employers, the Universities Superannuation Scheme warned on Wednesday.”

August 6

Workshop tomorrow at @Cambridge_Uni on “Social Media and #USSStrikes”, organised by members of @CambridgeUCU. This reminds me of a couple controversial claims by Cambridge VC Toope. (This is the one in which Alistair Jarvis makes a cameo appearance and then I go on to analyse a video of Cambridge VC Stephen Toope)

Without planning to do so, I’ve been making running commentaries on @UCU branch statements regarding cost sharing. Here, in one place, are links to my threads

August 3

A useful reminder of how different DB was when #USS was founded 40 years ago — in fact how much it resembled the WinRS design @FirstActuarial first proposed for Royal Mail. It was a sensible and sustainable way to run a DB pension scheme. (I won’t mention the author just yet.)

August 2

Of all the many objections to #CDC flying around the Twitter, this one is surely the best: ‘CDC would be an abomination for USS, the unions would throw their toys out of the pram at the first sign of a haircut’

July 31

Hi Max. Should how much money people have for their retirement depend on how lucky they’ve been in playing the stock market and how long they live? Or should we share one another’s risks, so that each has a decent pension, no matter how lucky or long-lived? #AskMaxCumbo

One of an occasional series of tweets on something other than USS. (On why it would not be undemocratic for an opposition party to campaign on a manifesto to keep the UK in the EU if elected or to hold a second referendum that includes an option to remain in the EU.)

July 27

This embedded tweet from @IlliniBizDean is illuminating. I comment in tweets below: ‘ One can also recognize that the right discount rate gives the right answer on funding, and still conclude that “full funding” is not necessary. Society can choose to fund partly on a pay-as-you-go basis. But we should be honest about size of costs we are shifting forward.’

Would anyone dispute the following re USS? There are only 2 ways to prevent the rise in contributions by 10.6% by April 2020: 1. Changing existing DB benefits and/or 2. Increasing the assumed returns in investment in the valuation

July 25

…there is a blog from Bill Galvin (linked) that was posted today which appears to have gone unnoticed. (Discussion of Galvin’s statement that USS will review “the early discussions regarding [employer] risk appetite and capacity.”)

The fears about CDC expressed in this embedded tweet by @DrJoGrady … strike me as unfounded, for reasons I mention in tweets below.

July 24

Exchange mainly with Ed Bartholomew regarding First Actuarial’s approach (also scroll up as well as down and into threads that fork off)

July 18

Having previously assessed two bad arguments (see links) that USS is not in deficit, I now go on to offer a much better argument that it is not in deficit: ‘(Good) Argument #3: USS lacks sound basis for de-risking the assets over the next 20 years. Once this de-risking is cancelled, the scheme is fully funded on a prudent basis.’ (Since links to assessments of two bad arguments are embedded in this thread, I don’t link to them in this index. See this blog post, which incorporates these tweet threads and adds a bit of commentary.)

July 14

A tweet thread on how USS monitors the funding level of the scheme between valuations. (See also embedded links to subthreads, including the LONG one.)

June 23

Every #USS member should read @FixingEconomics’s “Reckless Prudence: How to break a pension system” (link). Some quotes and comments in the thread below.

June 20

I’ve finally had a chance to read ‘Risk Is Not a Four-Letter Word’ by Hilary Salt — aka @RedActuary. I highly recommend it to academics in USS.

June 9

.@leedsucu writes: “…To take home pay in 2018–19 with the same real-terms value as in 2008, our pay would need to increase by 7.8%.” (Tweet thread on Leeds UCU statement about the pay ballot and inflation.)