Index of Twitter threads (2020)

49 min readAug 10, 2018

2020

December 29

It will be possible to rectify the losses to school children & university students if we shift to online teaching this winter. But if we let the variant run out of control, it won’t be possible to resurrect the dead.

December 28

Hospital serving London borough of Greenwich “has declared a major incident over fears about a shortage in oxygen caused by the demand from coronavirus patients on its wards.” 1/3

Since (see👇) SAGE expresses widely held view that secondary schools must stay closed in Jan to keep R<1, why is @GavinWilliamson fighting enormous battle to keep them open? Does he think he’s a better epidemiologist? Or does he want to let the virus rip?

December 24

This is a contender, against stiff competition, for the most idiotic coronavirus proposal. [“Private equity firm Blackstone wants to fill half-empty IQ student accomm property w tourists, claiming this will reduce mental health implications of isolation”]

December 23

Grim modelling just posted from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine’s Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, in a paper co-authored by SAGE member John Edmunds. Read the abstract👇. 1/2

Informative select committee testimony from scientists on BBC Parliament channel right now. Confidence level that variant causes rather than merely correlates with higher transmission now ‘high’ rather than ‘moderate’.

December 22

From a @BBCr4today interview with University of Birmingham Professor of Biostatistics @deeksj 👇. Click link👇for full transcript of the interview. 1/2

December 21

👇👀Study by U of Birmingham Prof of Biostatistics estimates that Innova rapid lateral flow antigen tests of 7,189 students in December managed to detect 2 who were Covid-infected while failing to detect another 60 who were Covid-infected. Sensitivity = 2/(2+60) = 3.2%.

🚨This👇from linked NERVTAG minutes is significant, since “Lateral Flow Devices” = rapid result antigen tests universities are using to test students pre & post Christmas, & VUI-202012/01 = the variant of the virus that rapidly transmits. 1/4

December 20

2 important implications of what @MattHancock says here👇: 1st, since Tier 4 is essentially the same as the Nov lockdown, which didn’t stop cases from rising in Kent, Tier 4 won’t be sufficient to stop cases from rising in Kent, London & the SE either. 1/

December 19

It appears that there is no change in the government guidance [to universities] that applies to the new Tier 4 areas, in spite of the high level of community infection by a variant of the virus estimated to be up to 70% more easily transmitted. 1/

December 18

“Let’s draw the line at those whom we pay so poorly that a £50 voucher might make a significant difference, on their tight budgets, and…um…NOT give this to them.”

December 16

NYT piece co-authored by Biden CDC Director: “People Thought Covid-19 Was Relatively Harmless for Younger Adults. They Were Wrong: New research shows that July may have been the deadliest month for young adults in modern American history”

🚨Nationally-representative ONS infection survey indicates that 10% who test positive will have symptoms for 12 or more weeks & 20% for 5 or more weeks. #LongCovid 1/2

December 15

Granted standards have fallen as fast as VC salaries have risen. But we shouldn’t allow them fall so low that a need to undergo bullying & harassment training is compatible w remaining in VC post. I mean, seriously, have the decency to resign Alice Gast.

Excellent detailed thread, which indicates that the imposing & relaxing of restrictions are the main factor in driving levels of infections & that Christmas relaxation is likely to stretch hospitals to breaking point. 1/2

December 13

Sunday Times reports that the Chancellor recruited Oxford Prof Sunetra Gupta to try to convince the PM not to impose another lockdown in the autumn. She advocated letting the virus rip through population to achieve herd immunity in 3–6 months. 1/2

UK: How the government ignored SAGE advice to keep university teaching online this autumn👇. From detailed, damning Sunday Times reporting of the government’s misjudgments & wishful thinking in setting aside the advice of scientists time & again. 1/2

December 12

Read the article to which @IndependentSage member @ReicherStephen links, for vindication of his strong language [in condemnation of the UK government’s decision to force schools to remain open during the week before Christmas]. 1/2

December 11

Just as the left in the UK supports abolition of uni tuition fees repaid by income-contingent loans, even though this would mainly benefits the better off, the left in the US support large student loan write-off that would mainly benefit the better off👇.

December 9

An excellent agreement (link👇) that @sussexucu has entered into with @adamtickell & his SMT, regarding in person teaching next term. Here is a key passage👇. 1/2

The New York Times webpage is now leading with this damning long read article on the Astrazeneca/Oxford vaccine. It recounts a number of gratuitous-seeming blunders, which, sadly, are already serving as grist for anti-vaxxer conspiracy mills. 1/2

Keeping a campus open when the level of community infection is as high as in the US & the UK is akin to driving while drunk. Most drunk drivers don’t kill or harm. That doesn’t make them responsible. Just lucky. 2/2

December 5

Poor results👇from lateral flow tests, especially given that the standard PCR test benchmark against which lateral flow non-detection is measured itself involves a fairly high false negative rate among the asymptomatic in 1st days post-infection.

December 4

About a week ago, the total number of Covid deaths in the EU surpassed the US (once again)👇. It’s somewhat striking that the EU trend resembles f(x) = x³👇, with x = 0 inflection point occurring in the middle of the summer. US trend is more linear.

November 26

Canberra, pop c 400,000 & home of the ANU, “is once again free of active coronavirus infections as the only patient in the territory has recovered”. It has recorded 115 cases total since start of pandemic (but none involving community transmission). 1/

November 22

Depressing👇, especially since Michigan has about twice as many students as @BristolUniversi 1/3

Impressively argued & documented thread of relevance to those w interests in education, social science & statistics. Mainly about Covid-19 infection among school teachers but also includes data re uni lecturers.

November 19

.@LSEnews’s public health experts @MOSSIALOS @clarewenham & Laura Bear are among the co-authors of this @TheLancet piece👇which describes universities as a major hub of community transmission, which should move teaching online where possible.

November 11

Huge problem with exit testing to give students passports home for Christmas: will work only if students self-isolate (including no travel for classroom teaching) for a week before the test. Otherwise lots of false negatives.👇🤦‍♂️

November 7

.@UniversityLeeds spokesperson: “War is peace, freedom is slavery, ignorance is strength, & dog patrols are there to serve as a visible source of reassurance to staff and students.” #Gaslighting [1/2]

November 5

UK govt finally advises to wear face coverings “in all HE learning environments”, even if 2m distanced.👇As this is also good public heath practice, @UniversitiesUK employers should now advise instructors & students to wear a facemask in the classroom.

November 4

Given the relatively high risk of another lockdown in Jan, Feb, or March, no university student should be required to return to campus after Christmas. They should all have the opportunity to take courses remotely, from their family (or other non-university) home.

November 1

Other colleagues & I concur with @LSEHealthPolicy’s @clarewenham
👇that it’s hard to understand why universities aren’t going online now, since why put teachers & students at risk if things are so bad we need another national lockdown? 1/3

October 30

Given how much Elsevier charges universities to subscribe to their journals, we might expect a bit more quality control. Decent pay for editors & referees would be a good start.

October 29

On the one hand, there is the React study from the scientists at Imperial College London, who conclude that the second wave “has now reached a critical stage” and that “it is now time-critical to control the virus and turn R below one”. 1/ On the other hand, we have the herd immunity ravings of someone who falsly claimed to hold an honorary professorship at Imperial College London. Whom should we believe? It’s so difficult to choose. 2/2

Please read this thread & then the excellent linked piece in El Pais which draws on @jljcolorado’s Covid Aerosol Estimator to provide graphics on aerosol risk in various settings.

Universities instructed to go online in France.[1/2] Compare this response [from Manchester Met U] in the other direction👇, in a region with high incidence of Covid-19 on this side of the channel. There is no public health justification for this move. [2/2]

October 28

[Thread on UCU’s decision to postpone their postponed online Congress because of problems with their software.]

October 27

If you’re opposed to the marketisation of UK higher education, to tuition fees & the hostile environment for migrants, then it follows that you’re opposed to overseas & EU as well as UK tuition fees. If you also think UK HE is underfunded, then your view is that…. 1/2

In Scotland, the government & university employers exercised so little foresight in bringing them back to campus that students may need to be granted “exemptions” from general travel restrictions so that they may return home for Christmas. 1/3

Please comment below this tweet if you’re teaching in the UK this term👇. It’s good to receive a sampling of actual practices at the moment.

October 25

An important question👇. Here’s one (not the only) reason why they ignored sound public health advice: university senior managers & governing bodies are supposed to promote the interests of their university as a going concern, w/in the limits of the law, but… 1/

October 24

To justify his attempt to carry on with in person teaching amidst rising cases, the VC of @sheffielduni appeals to the wishes of Boris Johnson to keep universities open even during time of Very High Covid alert. (@sheffielducu) 1/

October 21

The University of Michigan, which has just locked its undergraduates down for 2 weeks & moved their teaching online for the rest of the semester, shows that large outbreaks don’t only happen at the beginning of term & then tail off for the remainder. Term began 31 August. 1/

Having just read the article, I find it difficult to take issue with this assessment. Perhaps others who are more sanguine might explain why they think otherwise.

‘For public institutions [in the US], the proportion of state residents who voted for Donald Trump was the most powerful predictor of whether “in-person” was announced. …decision-making was completely unrelated to cumulative infection and related mortality rates.’

October 18

🚨UK longitudinal study of 201 individuals with #LongCovid reveals a high proportion are relatively young & without pre-existing health conditions. Also reveals “almost 70%…have impairment in one or more organs four months after initial symptoms”. 1/4

October 17

Unclear whether there are more than 11 ‘households’ in Homerton College Cambridge’s West House. Whether or not there are, this shows what a nonsense separate household bubbles are in a hall of residence.

October 16

🚨“you’re in that very, very fast upward swing of the epidemic, and a day’s delay matters, a week’s delay really matters… We saw that in March/April… The red lights are flashing…”. SAGE member @JeremyFarrar case for circuit breaker starting NOW. 1/2

October 15

Dr Ellen Brooks Pollock (@n3113n) explains why two-week self-isolation at the end of term isn’t sufficient for safe return home for the holidays. One also needs to shift to online teaching now.

October 14

Re👇, what are the plans of the other 129? To be taken by surprise by the high rate of infection in January of this seasonal respiratory virus? 1/2

Covid denialism strongly correlates with innumeracy — even more so than with right-wing political views.

Here’s the case for a 2-wk circuit break, as spelled out in the recently released linked SAGE document.

Why we’re screwed: Our PM’s voracious appetite for time discounting, followed by the tendency for the future to become the present. Lockdown in late not early March. Circuit break will come too late if at all. 31 December Brexit deadline lies far over his time horizon rainbow.

According to the recently released SAGE papers👇, keeping universities open plays a greater role in spreading Covid-19 infection — ~0.3 (0.2–0.5) increase in R — than any other activity, apart from keeping secondary schools open — ~0.35 (0.2–0.5). 1/

October 13

Epidemiologist compares going to gym to playing Russian roulette: “most of the time, when you put the gun to your head and pull the trigger, nothing happens. But there’s a risk that something really awful will happen, like it seemed to have here.” 1/2

This tweet from yesterday👇on the Manchester VC’s interview with @bbcnickrobinson is now my 5th most viewed for 2020, at 92k and rising. Countdown of the other 4 below. 1/5

October 12

Jaw-dropping @BBCRadio4 interview w VC of University of Manchester: surprised by rapidity of outbreaks!; claims the main problem was failure to sufficiently communicate to students the need to follow guidelines!

October 11

Britain is now the sick man of Europe. Also sicker than the US.🤒🦠

October 10

Please read story below & call on your university management to LAUNCH THE SURVEY described below if they refuse to always notify instructor & students that someone with whom they’ve shared a classroom for a prolonged period while potentially infectious has tested positive. 1/

October 8

A powerful letter, both intellectually and emotionally. I hope everyone in UK higher education who is making decisions regarding the case for pressing on with in person teaching takes a few moments to read this.

A serious & legitimate question👇. If there are no takers, then @UniversitiesUK leaders are acting in bad faith in claiming that F2F teaching w 2m distance & masks is safe & in their refusal to notify & test all who have shared a classroom w someone who tests positive. [Thread]

Damningly accurate statement from the father of a @UniofNottingham student in this @bbcnews piece, regarding the failure of the university to provide her with meals during self-isolation. 1/

Interesting that @uniofeastanglia doesn’t defend their £252 2-week self-isolation meal plan (reduced to £168 after protest) by claiming that £252 was at cost for them. So we can assume that they were profiting, in which case ‘disaster capitalism’ is accurate.

October 7

Here is another warning [of coronavirus seasonality with November, December & January the worst months in the northern hemisphere] for @UniversitiesUK employers to ignore👇.

“…we quickly undertook a thorough cleaning of all touchpoints throughout the centre and have continued to run an enhanced cleaning schedule until then. …As such the centre remains open to the public.” Very unlikely that this spread via touching things. 1/

Here is the story behind this rather interesting tweet👇by @UofGlasgow @UofGCOO David Duncan. 1/

October 6

Long read piece in NYT on @UniversitiesUK handling of Covid-19 is justifiably scathing. Opening paragraphs👇. 1/

.@UniversitiesUK @USSEmployers are now admirably transparent in their release of their own, their actuary’s & #USS documents regarding pensions consultations. 1/

Please sign & RT this petition calling for public release of the report into the dismissal of @ucu-nominated #USS director Jane Hutton & disclosure of the legal costs associated with the prior investigation👇.

.@bbcnickrobinson on @BBCRadio4 at 6:59 am: “Coming up in the next hour on this programme:… Universities are publishing guidance on students returning. That’s right. They’re publishing it today.”

October 5

Insight into why student halls of residence are being locked down so hard in Manchester. Local authorities elsewhere will have similar motivation to contain wider community spread in this manner, in order to avoid more general lockdown measures.

Latest data👇from @timspector’s KCL symptom app study indicate university teachers in age group at highest risk of #LongCovid: greater than both 10% risk to whole population of symptoms for 1 month & 1.5%-2.0% general risk of symptoms for >3 months.

October 4

Sat 26 Sept superspreader White House Amy Coney Barrett celebration shows what happens when one tries too hard to return to normal during time of pandemic. No masks. Hugs & handshakes. Indoor reception as well as outdoor event with no social distancing. 1/9

October 3

Strong words regarding US & @UniversitiesUK leaders, from a physician and professor of global health & public policy at Duke. 1/

October 2

My Uehiro Lectures in Practical Ethics have now been rescheduled on Zoom for the first 3 Tuesdays in November: the 3rd, 10th, 17th. All at 3.30–5.15 pm London time. General title: “How to pool risks across generations: the case for collective pensions” 1/5

The University of Northumbria’s 770 cases among their students during the past few days is 257 more than Taiwan has had during the entire history of the universe.

Boris Johnson: “I want to pay a particular tribute to the students who are experiencing a first term back at university unlike anything they could have imagined.” If he didn’t foresee this, he’s incompetent. If he DID foresee, he was indifferent to the misery he anticipated.

Does anyone know the outcome of Motion 14, calling for “escalating @ucu’s approach to sustained, effective industrial action” in order “to overturn the HE sector”, because 22 days “was not enough to win such an extensive dispute”?

October 1

KCL symptom app study provides confirmation of Imperial survey that R is now down to slightly above 1. So it appears that new measures & general raising of alarm is having a positive effect. 1/

A convincingly-argued @Wonkhe piece for wearing masks in halls of residence.

Significant intevention from 5 Leeds MPs, calling for: (1) Shifting all @UniversityLeeds teaching online, except that which can be delivered only in person, as appropriate response to elevated local rate of infection. (2) Dashboard (as in the US). 1/

September 29

🚨Yale spokesperson confirms to student paper “that there were three cases of COVID-19 stemming from [a] lecture”. All wore masks. All 6 ft distanced. Windows open. 1/

“It’s quite scary because we’ve had no security on the inside. So it’s kind of been a wild party since it locked down. Everybody’s mixing regardless of whether they have it [Covid-19] or not.” 1/2

September 28

Remarkable that, with the possible exception of @Cambridge_Uni 👇, no @UniversitiesUK employer has provided an account of what they’ve done to ensure that it’s unlikely that their own students will suffer lockdown in halls of residence this term. 1/2

September 27

If the well-being of students was truly @UniversitiesUK employers’ “1st priority”👇, they wouldn’t have re-opened halls of residence to nearly full capacity, while also failing to provide the frequent testing of all needed to prevent outbreaks & lockdowns.

September 26

This incredible @UofGlasgow thread makes clear what a miserable situation they’ve left their students in, after calling them back to the city for in person teaching, & the pressure they’re under to set things right. 1/

I’m singling out this tweet [on UK universities filling halls of residence to nearly full capacity] from this good thread by @jim_dickinson, which I hope all @UniversitiesUK senior managers will take a few moments to read. 1/

Except for “sell students the lie”, everything @ucu General Secretary @DrJoGrady says here is beyond dispute👇.

BBC 7:04 am @BBCr4today bulletin: “1700 students at Manchester Metropolitan University have been instructed not to leave their halls of residence for two weeks because of an outbreak of coronavirus. More than 120 students have tested positive.” 1/2

September 25

.@USSEmployers actuary @aon notes that #USS modelling “largely showed that there was no merit in de-risking the scheme while it remained open” & points to inconsistency w past practice of #USS’s response.🔥 1/

100 cases in Iceland, traced to a pub & a restaurant, traced further, via genetic coding, to two tourists who refused to self-isolate after testing positive.

Mind-boggling response from the official @UniversityLeeds account to parent of a student, in which they casually reveal their failure to put in place measures that will make effective monitoring of the extent of infections among their students possible.

Is anyone aware of any @UniversitiesUK employer that’s publishing a daily (or even weekly) dashboard of cases, along lines of various US universities? E.g.👇.

September 24

Scottish universities: “Hi, we crashed into a #COVID19-shaped tree.” English universities: “We’ll be extremely vigilant as we crash into the same tree.” (An homage to @acupunctureUSS)

.@BBCRadio4 8:35 am news bulletin: “The Health Secretary Matt Hancock has told us he cannot rule out banning students from returning home at Christmas if there are big outbreaks at universities. 124 students at Glasgow University have tested positive.”

Surprised to hear @PeterHorby offer new evidence of low risk to young adults with no underlying conditions as a justification for Covid-19 challenge vaccine trials 👇. 1/

September 22

UK university Twitter ought to be exploding any minute, over Johnson’s answer in the Commons a few minutes ago, to the question from the MP from Manchester.

#USS members who viewed this webinar, which @Sam_Marsh101 & others rightly criticised as too scripted & oriented towards softball questions… 1/

The spreadsheet linked to this excellent new brief by @aechitty1 contains relatively conservative (i.e., low) estimates of the numbers of students who will be asymptomatic & infectious on arrival to university. 1/

September 21

Chris Whitty: “If I as an individual increase my risk, I increase the risk to everybody around me and then everyone who is a contact of theirs…. So you cannot, in an epidemic, just take your own risk. Unfortunately, you’re taking a risk on behalf of everybody else.”

Significant revision to @CDCgov “how-covid-spreads.html” webpage👇to acknowledge significance of aerosol transmission, including beyond 6 ft, & importance of ventilation👇. 1/

September 20

Why we need to act NOW. Though it was at or below 1 — it was 0.7–0.9 or 0.8–1.0 — from the end of May to the middle of August, R has been rising in recent weeks & is now estimated at 1.1–1.4👇. 1/11

September 18

.@BristolUniversi’s policy is scientifically illiterate. Should be the other way around: masks even if one can maintain 2m distance, to protect against aerosol transmission. Visors in addition, to protect against droplets if one can’t maintain 2m distancing. (@Bristol_UCU)🤦‍♂️1/2

Matt Hancock on @BBCr4today: “The vast majority of transmissions happen in social settings.” Re universities: “The challenge w/ universites going back is ensuring that the students also follow the social distancing rules when they’re off campus.”

September 17

A resident’s reaction to a @UniversitiesUK employer’s failure to enforce legal social distancing requirements in their halls of residence👇. This employer has lost standing to force their instructors to teach in person, not online.

September 16

VC Eastwood describes assistant Charlotte’s jumping up & opening window whenever he walks past as “a really good example of the constant adjustments we will need to make to ensure that this remains a safe environment.” We, or just she? How about wearing a mask, VC?

In a welcome & encouraging result for @ucu, members have elected @justinemercer11 their VP. She had a strong plurality of 1st preference votes👇& picked up more 2nd pref votes than the other candidates in the 2nd & 3rd rounds. 1/

September 15

A thread on the impending, foreseeable @UniversitiesUK car crash: Cases have been surging since the re-opening of schools & the call to return to work in early September. 1/10

September 14

60 deaths from US campus cases SO FAR — “mostly of college staff members”. Simple non-rhetorical question for @UniversitiesUK employers: How many deaths among your staff do you expect & how many do you regard as acceptable?

Yeah, but what does she know? She’s just a virologist & professor at the Geneva Centre for Emerging Viral Diseases. We need to know what the tech bros think.

September 12

“The Times survey of 1,600 institutions also shows how widely the contagion has spread, with [universities and colleges] of every type and size, and in every state, reporting infections.” 1/

September 11

Click here and read upwards for comments on a thread by Sam Marsh on how Metric A is USS’s new Test 1.

New CDC study👇: significant risk of Covid-19 infection associated with restaurants & bars.👇1/3

September 10

The Dept of Education has just issued new HE guidance👇, which includes a new section that emphasises need for good ventilation to reduce the risk of aerosol transmission👇. 1/

September 9

Glaring problem w #USS’s ‘Risk Metric B’, according to which gap between current value of assets & cost of purchasing a low-risk gilts-weighted ‘self-sufficiency’ portfolio must be small enough that universities can afford to bridge it & purchase such a portfolio. 1/

The Shadow Universities Minister expresses serious concerns about the re-opening of universities. They come across as genuine rather than party political. Also grounded in fact.

Chris Whitty at Downing St press conference now: infections per capita & % of tests that are positive are way up among those aged 17–21. [Thread]

On@BBCr4today Health Sec @MattHancock chastises school for trying to test all students, making depressingly clear that the NHS lacks capacity for the sort of asymptomatic testing which is necessary👇to prevent widespread outbreaks in universities. 1/2

.@UniversitiesUK senior managers: please read the numerous quotations from student union officers, in discussion with @jim_dickinson, which reveal the lack of realism of plans to contain widespread student outbreaks via test, trace & isolate. 1/

September 8

.@ucu members, when you have time, please read this detailed, well-informed, well-judged account👇of why the 22 days of strikes were called & achieved so little & how to get the union back on course. By @dyfrig @AdamOzanne & John Kelly. Excerpt👇.

#USS best estimate of returns on various assets, per annum over the next 30 years, in real terms (above CPI): 1/

Here is #USS’s account of how the Mar 2018 £3.6bn deficit based on 2018 valuation assumptions has evolved into the March 2020 £17.9bn deficit based on 2020 valuation assumptions. 1/

This👇👀😮is the most extraordinary passage in the #USS consultation document. Implies that #USS is prepared to destroy the entire UK HE sector to ensure that past DB pension promises are paid in full. (“Available risk capacity” = £65bn #USS could bleed dry from universities.)

Had they all been wearing masks, there would have been fairly low risk of transmission among people in this outdoor crowd in Washington Sq. near NYU. Even w/o masks, this won’t give rise to ‘superspreader’ event. Just infection of those in close contact. 1/

September 6

#USS: If @USSEmployers’s agree to measures to back the covenent, contributions must rise from the current 30.7% to 40% to retain existing benefits. If they don’t agree to these measures, contributions must rise to 68%. [Thread follows.]

September 5

.@UniversitiesUK & @AlistairJarvis, do you agree w the Times letter you highlight that the risk of Covid-19 “has always been minuscule for young people”, bearing in mind that death isn’t the only risk? Are your plans for re-opening based on the assumption of minuscule risk? 1/

September 4

I agree with @jim_dickinson that there’s a lot to learn from analysis of what has happened in the US. 1/ I hope the contrasting attitude👇of Nottingham @registrarism Paul Greatrix is not representative of the attitude of UK HE senior managers more generally. 2/

FAQ’s👇on Covid-19 aerosol transmission & related issues (masks, ventilation, significance of 2m, etc.), jointly authored by 7 aerosol experts. An excellent and useful resource, worthy of close attention.

September 3

Three non-rhetorical question for UK university leaders: How many severe life-changing illnesses, such as @felicitycallard’s 👇, do you deem an acceptable price for members of your staff to pay as the cost of resuming teaching in person? 1/

Astonishing that some who are re-opening universities *still* believe that face masks are unnecessary in enclosed spaces people share for a prolonged period, so long as everyone is 2m apart. See what happened in this bus when nobody was wearing a mask.

September 1

UK university leaders *please* take a couple minutes to read this editorial in the @bmj_latest re lessons to be learned from the US, one of whose co-authors (@RWalensky) is co-author of the influential Yale-Harvard study on testing. Excerpt on testing👇. [Short thread follows.]

NYT list of US metro areas w greatest # of new cases per capita is dominated by college towns, which take 5 of the 6 top spots. 1/

Huge credit to @Illinois_Alma for developing & rolling out frequent saliva-based testing of all, w quick turn-around & automated access to campus tied to negative result👇. It’s not just mega-$$$ endowed unis that are able to make in person teaching safe.

August 30

👀😮This one has to be seen to be believed: The hole that @BU_Tweets keeps digging in their efforts to render the inherently unsafe safe. Just admit you called things wrong and shift online.

August 28

Handwriting on the wall for larger outbreaks when term starts in October: “‘Unsettling’ rise in coronavirus cases” in August. “The director for public health says the 18–29 age group is driving the rise”.

The virus is chomping at the bit. It can’t wait until it has free rein to rise exponentially in September with the re-opening of schools & universities.

August 27

Chancellor of NC State: “The spread of the virus has been unrelenting. It’s simply become untenable for us to continue to offer on-campus housing to such a large number of undergraduates.”

August 25

Super-spreader events can spread & spread & spread.

August 24

By re-opening their schools & universities later than in other countries, the UK can learn from what has happened elsewhere & make approriate adjustments to ensure that things go better here. 1/

🚨UK university staff & students: make sure to insist that your employer gathers & publishes accurate & up-to-date data on the rate of Covid-19 infection among students & staff. See this statement👇by UCU President @zenscara to @IndependentSAGE 👇. 1/4

August 23

Jaw-dropping account of failure U of Iowa to meet duty of care to incoming student who tested positive. No assistance in moving to quarantine room, which was filthy & ant-infested. Served cold rice & water for food. Fled to a hotel, at cost of $700.

August 22

If university employers fail to provide the frequent testing of all students that’s necessary to prevent extensive outbreaks, then *STUDENTS* will hold them to accounts. This from the Notre Dame student newspaper👇. 1/

The opening line👇of this excellent, must-read @USSBriefs post👇caught my attention. @ucl has consistently stood out among @UniversitiesUK employers in their recognition of the seriousness of the risks arising from Covid-19. 1/

Balanced but nevertheless damning conclusion👇of an informative piece called “Inside the Slow-Moving Disaster of Students Returning to College Campuses: How does one properly quarantine in a dorm?”.

August 21

In 1996 #USS was invested & valued along lines that @ucu defended in👇motion: (1) portfolio heavily weighted towards equities (c. 80%) & property (c. 10%) rather than gilts (c. 10%), (2) valuation based on ‘best estimate’ of return on assets. 1/

August 19

Notre Dame managed to get through 7 days of instruction before closing on account of a spike in Covid-19 outbreaks. 1/

Telling excerpt👇from a compelling piece by a Prof & Assoc Dean for Research at Georgia Tech. To those who’d claim this doesn’t apply to the UK because our rate of infection is lower than US: see spikes in Australia & Israel from low infection baselines.

August 16

Click and read upwards for comments on a misleading comparision of infection-fatality rate for Covid 19 with fatality rates for accidents.

August 13

Contrary to “the dominant belief of [US] college administrators”, the top choice of incoming students is to be taught online from home👇. Survey of 927 incoming & 905 returning students. 3% margin of error. 1/

August 12

“…colleges and universities have followed a poorly calibrated consumer-knows-best approach that has led them to make a serious mistake”. From the opening of an excellent piece by @dan_star (aka @duecaution) in today’s IHE 👇.

August 10

I think there’s a serious & insufficiently acknowledged limitation of this face mask study👇published in Science: measures droplets only in FRONT of the speaker’s face. But… 1/

“Residents tend to view the beginning of any academic year with a degree of trepidation. However, this year, it’s more than trepidation. For some it is dread. For others, especially if they are elderly or vulnerable, or have family who fall into those categories, it is fear.” 1/

Since testing is limited to those with symptoms (see blue👇), it’s simply false for @UniofOxford to claim that “any new case of COVID-19 at the University will be identified, & action taken to prevent transmission, at the earliest possible moment”. 1/

August 7

👀This👇from a blistering thread by @Wonkhe’s @jim_dickinson about a slick, creepy, ill-judged video @UniversitiesUK has posted on Youtube, urging students to overcome their fears & show up in September. 1/

Welcome news that a SAGE committee is being set up to address risks of spread of infection to surrounding communities & beyond associated with re-opening of universities & colleges. 1/

University of Georgia takes decisive action to ensure that instructors’ shirts will be protected from large respiratory droplets.

August 6

.@jim_dickinson’s retweet has brought this👇to my attention, re @imperialcollege halls of residence. 1/

August 5

In 29 July note to @USSEmployers👇, #USS announces it will adopt a dual discount rate & drop Test 1, while retaining ‘self-sufficiency’ benchmark. 1/

August 4

🚨1 in 5 ages 18–34 with no underlying health conditions had not returned to usual health 2–3 weeks after testing positive for Covid-19. CDC random sample of mainly young adults who had tested positive across 14 US academic health care systems. 1/

August 3

Strongly agree w @DrJoGrady re need for greater & more inclusive consultation of @ucu members on industrial action, but I have doubts re two main claims in her email to members👇re problem w timing of last strike ballot & proposal to aggregate next one. 1/

August 2

Melbourne going into 6 wks of lockdown: Curfew 8pm-5am. Outside for max 1 hr of exercise, <5 km from home. Unis & schools to go online. Masks outside home compulsory. “Where you slept last night is where you’ll need to stay for the next six weeks.”

July 31

🚨If university students aren’t tested every 2–3 days, “colleges are very likely to fall prey to outbreaks that will place vulnerable people on campus & in the surrounding community at risk for serious illness and death.” 1/

How exactly does a paltry 30% turnout on an electronic ballot — which falls far short of the required 50% postal ballot turnout to authorise industrial action — strengthen the hands of the negotiators? “I am delighted” comes across as either delusional or dishonest.

July 30

Read this fascinating thread on evidence of risk of infection on train👇. It reads more like Hercule Poirot deducing cause of death on the Orient Express than what one might expect from an epidemiologist.

🚨🗳️🚨DON’T throw away that fat @ucu envelope containing your ballot for VP(HE). This is a crucial post, whose occupant will chair HEC from Sept 2020 to May 2022. VP(HE) also has the right to chair negotiation teams for #USS & pay & equalities. 1/

July 29

In addition to disabling air dryers in toilets, @CUBoulder has also purchased air purifiers for poorly ventilated indoor spaces. This on advice of their scientists & engineers.

July 27

🚨Data re long-term Covid effects is now emerging. Sydney study reveals that “at least 20 per cent” of a representative sample of “randomly selected participants who had not been hospitalised reported symptoms three months after clearing the virus”. 1/

New paper👇on another superspreader event involving a choir. This one in France on 12 March. Choir practice in indoor non-ventilated room 45m2. Infection spread to 70% of 27 participants. 1/

July 26

Fordham English Professor @glenntwo has posted an excellent email to students👇, explaining his reasons for opting to teach his course entirely online. In striking contrast to many others, Fordham faculty may choose whether to teach online or mask-to-mask.

July 25

Simple, sensible government advice👇for how an instructor may be heard in a socially distanced classroom, without having to speak loudly in a manner that releases thousands of oral fluid droplets per second: use a microphone. 1/

I hope everyone responsible for re-opening @UniversitiesUK universities reads @jim_dickinson’s detailed & illuminating account of recently-released government documents.

Acting on advice from their experts on aerosol chemistry (@jljcolorado) & indoor air quality control measures (@ShellyMBoulder), @CUBoulder is disabling air blow dryers in their public toilet. 1/

July 24

Answer to @Dennis_Leech’s question👇: There’s no way to tell from his graph whether the scheme is in deficit, since it doesn’t tell us whether contributions plus returns on their investment are sufficient to cover the DB promises with which these contributions are associated. 1/

July 23

We need some sense of the reduction in transmission to assess claims that it’s safe to re-open indoor spaces such as university classrooms so long as people are wearing this or that mask. Not enough to say: Just wear a mask, and teach indoors!

Covid-19 Is Having Long-Term Effects on Young People: video & transcript of remarks by Dr Michael Ryan, Executive Director, WHO Health Emergencies Programme

July 22

Insist on transparency from your university employer re risks to which they’re exposing members of their community. Reported refusal of @BU_Tweets to inform grad student housing residents of quarantining in their midst is appalling.

July 19

Data from @timspector’s KCL COVID-19 Symptom Study app indicates a rise in new cases👇. They also estimate, w 95% confidence, that R is between 1.0 & 1.3 in England (link👇). Best estimate of R = 1.1. 1/

Holding classes outdoors in September & October would make good sense. It even made sense to hold classes outdoors in the dead of winter to avoid respiratory plagues over 100 years ago👇. 1/

Fauci calls for bars to be closed, saying their re-opening is a major cause of surge in infections across US states. 1/

July 18

Excellent linked piece about re-opening universities, co-authored by a professor of global health at Duke. This is one of my favourate paragraphs👇.

July 17

A damning account of tedious, time-wasting, close-minded antics of @UCULeft in particular that @UCU’s NEC members have to put up with.

A new blog post: “Should there be human challenge vaccine trials for Covid-19?: Why I didn’t — and Nir Eyal thought I should — sign the open letter calling for this”

Encouraging news from the Oxford/Astrazeneca UK vaccine trials. An effective “vaccine could be fairly widely available around September” in a best case scenario.

On assumptions of the current 2018 valuation, #USS deficit=£20.2bn as of 30 June 2020 (73% funded), up from £3.6bn as of 31 Mar 2018 valuation date. Contributions for future pensions promises=40.1% of salaries, compared w 28.7% as of 31 Mar 2018. 1/3

July 14

🚨🚨🚨Calling UK academics: I’m gathering information about the option to conduct one’s small group teaching online. Please click link to this public FB post👇to see what the policies are at various universities & to add information about your own.

July 13

Pittsburgh got daily new Covid infections down to zero in mid-June. Reopened. Daily infections now 200. Rise contact-traced to bars & restaurants. Median age of newly infected = 29, many asymptomatic.

Of relevance👇to the view that the risks from Covid 19 are acceptably low for most of working age because (1) the infection/fatality rate is very low & (2) such a high percentage of those infected never experience any symptoms. 1/

July 12

👇implies facemasks in university & high school classrooms. I’d therefore welcome a call from @IndependentSage on the government & university employers to take steps now to procure sufficient facemasks for September re-openings. 1/

July 11

Good, detailed, balanced piece on Scotland’s success in comparison with England in managing Covid.

July 9

A new blog: ‘Healthy workers as young as 45 at greater risk from Covid-19 than “clinically vulnerable” workers’

July 8

With lockdown & quarantine much more severe than the UK, Israel got new daily infections down to 20, much lower than the UK has ever experienced. Re-opened in May & things have now spiralled out of control👇. 1/

“Sweden suffered a vastly higher death rate while failing to collect on the expected economic gains.” x12 more deaths per capita than Norway, x6 more than Denmark. Central bank projected fall in GDP: NOR -3.9%; DNK -4.1%; SWE -4.5%. See also👇. 1/3

“we’re almost entering a Kafkaesque alternative reality where the government set the rules, we follow them, they don’t like the results and they then deny setting the rules and blame the people that were trying to do their best” 1/

July 7

Is anyone aware of any @UniversitiesUK employer that will be testing all students with the 2–3 day frequency that this paper👇says is necessary for safe re-opening of campuses? Or who has explained why this isn’t necessary? Please read thread.

Serious illness & death from Covid-19 among the young with no underlying health conditions: “As more data emerges, serious cases of younger, healthy people … are becoming less of an anomaly, doctors said.”

Depressing news from Melbourne, following a sustained period of very low level of infection. 1/

July 6

Gallows humor which hits home for me, as an American of Japanese descent. 1/

July 5

If I’m reading this correctly, worldwide, about 20% of those confirmed to have Covid-19 require hospital care👇. 1/

SWP claim it’s because of their “revolutionary” politics that they’re so reviled. “Red baiting”! No. Not that. Various other things, including how fucking obnoxious & annoying they are in the way they intrude on other causes & institutions. Note who ‘likes’ this post👇.

July 4

Air travel & Covid-19: “March 2 flight from the U.K. to Vietnam suggested that one passenger transmitted the virus to as many as 14 others and a crew member. Twelve of these passengers were sitting close to the suspected first case” 1/

When one talks through the details of synchronous masked, Zoomed teaching, it all starts looking desperate and absurd👇. Is the HE sector in massive denial?

.@michelledonelan (cc @EmmaHardyMP @Keir_Starmer) why has the government eliminated instruction to HE employers to “take account of the need to avoid disadvantaging” “students or staff … more likely to be at risk”? Website 29 June👇. 1/

A superb account [by Aaron Jakes] of the decisions US university administrators are making about re-opening campuses, almost all of which applies to the UK as well.

July 3

What happens when one applies the law of large numbers to small numbers.

🚨#USS members @USSEmployers, click link to former Pensions Minister @rosaltmann’s discussion of the Lords’ amendment regarding open DB schemes, for which she endorses an approach to investment & sustainability much along lines that @ucu & @FirstActuarial have been advocating.

July 2

Your @UniversitiesUK employer has a legal duty to assess the risks of resuming teaching in person. Make sure yours has assessed the risks of airborne (aerosol) Covid-19 transmission in the *specific* classrooms in which you’re assigned to teach. 1/7

Brilliant [Covid-19 trolley meme]! Deserves to go viral.

July 1

Good thread on risks associated with re-opening uni halls of residence. As @markmleach has done before, it rightly highlights issue of spread beyond university community. These are ‘negative externalities’ that go unmentioned in most discussions among uni members.

.@MattHancock, would you please explain why the age 70 threshold for ‘clinical vulnerability’ listed here👇… 1/ …has not yet been lowered to age 50, to bring it in line with the following statement you made in @10DowningStreet on 18 June?… 2/

Big differences in practices of different US universities. CU-Boulder is drawing on the modelling of @jljcolorado👇, who is an expert on aerosols. 1/

Britain: Stay with Europe (light green line). Don’t follow the lead of the US. 1/

June 29

Something for university leaders throughout England to consider, as they assess the risks of re-opening in September: if universities across the nation were to resume in-person teaching today, we can expect that c. 1,800 students would be Covid-19 infected👇. 1/8

June 28

Every @ucu member will be charged £15. 120,000 members x £15 = £1,800,000! So the @UCULeft-controlled HEC blew a huge hole in union finances, by calling members out on 22 days of strikes w/o figuring out how to pay for them. Recklessly irresponsible. 1/

A new blog post “Why is UCU Left condemning a levy that a majority of their NEC members voted for?”👇

June 27

Fascinating & disconcerting long read NYT piece on how the inconvenience of the now widely-accepted truth of widespread symptomless Covid-19 spreading led public health & government officials to deny & downplay this possibility for months. 1/

👀🚨🙁After occupying the red “need to take action” basement for months, the UK has been upgraded to yellow “nearly there” in beating Covid-19👇. Watch this space closely in coming weeks to see whether we sink back into the red, with lockdown easing. 1/

June 26

Since they’ll overwise be unable to fund promised strike pay, @ucu is taking the “extraordinary measure” of assessing each member a £15 “levy”, via direct bank account debit. This in spite of the fact that “union has never levied members before”.👇 1/

June 25

If a university in England with 10,000 students resumed in person teaching today, we can expect that 6 students would be Covid-19 infected, 4 of whom would be unaware of this fact. 1/8

June 23

In the long term, neurological injury from Covid-19 could cause more death & far greater disability than the more immediate & apparent damage to the lungs. 1/

.@ErinBromage: “emerging data about the infection rate for those under 50 years old is revealing that the 20- to 40-year-old segment of our population may in fact be the force driving this pandemic.” University leaders please take note of his conclusion👇.

June 20

Good news amidst coronavirus gloom: UK state pension to which all current & future pensioners are entitled (NB that includes the young & future generations) is forecast to rise by 18% in 2022👀😍, under the triple lock, which the Tories pledged to retain in their manifesto. 1/

If, as evidence suggests, the gradual decline in # of infections in the UK is a reflection of the seasonality of the virus, then it’s a big mistake to reduce the level of ‘alert’ from 4 to 3 & lower our guard. Excellent piece on seasonality👇.

June 19

Inflation over the past 12 months (May 2019-May 2020): CPI +0.5%; CPIH +0.7%; RPI +1.0%; RPIJ +0.4% 1/

June 17

Re👇at a Zoom meeting last night w @Keir_Starmer & @Georgia_Gould
I asked re testing & contact tracing Camden Council might be able to provide to help uni campuses in the constituency re-open in Sept. Answer not reassuring. Local authorities marginalised. [1/]

June 16

🚨👀👇On assumptions of the current 2018 valuation, #USS deficit=£15.2bn as of 30 Apr 2020 (79% funded), up from £3.6bn as of 31 Mar 2018 valuation date. Contributions for future pensions promises=36.7% of salaries, compared w 28.7% as of 31 Mar 2018. 1/6

A new blog post on #USS. [“Is investment weighted towards growth assets intergenerationally unfair?: A response to USS’s claim that it is”]

June 15

Something further to weigh in the risk assessment of online v in person teaching. On the one hand, Zoom is somewhat annoying. On the other hand👇, evidence that coronavirus infects, replicates inside of, and damages the brain, in a manner hard to treat.😱

June 11

There will be an e-ballot of @ucu members on whether to accept @UCEA1's pay & equalities offer👇. 1/

.@Sir_David_King — former Chief Scientific Advisor to the PM (2000–08) & current chair of @IndependentSage — spells out the government’s imprudence in lifting lockdown before adequate testing & contact tracing is in place (@BBCNewsnight interview 10 June)👇. 1/3

June 10

Highly instructive @BBCr4today interview with Michael Baker👇, Professor of Public Heath, Otago, & govt advisor & an architect of New Zealand’s approach, on how they managed to eliminate the virus. 1/9

June 9

A new blog post on USS. [‘What’s wrong with USS’s claim that the short-term risk of remaining invested 65% in growth assets is too high’]

June 8

Please see this thread👇re challenges of re-opening a place like U Michigan Ann Arbor.

June 7

Of great significance for university shielding policies: even taking health conditions into account “the biggest influence on a person’s COVID-19 risk is age. The risk from age is actually an extraordinarily accelerating one (log-linear…).” 1/

June 6

Further evidence of how difficult it will be to render classrooms Covid-safe: someone becomes infected simply as the result of sitting in the same seat that a pre-symptomic individual sat in several hours earlier.

June 5

Six Harvard graduate schools will be entirely online in the autumn, including their Law School, Kennedy School of Government, and, perhaps significantly, given the wording of Harvard’s statement👇, their School of Public Health. 1/

Thanks @DrJoGrady for the 5 Tests re Covid-safe return to campus the union has posted. The general principles seem well-formulated. Will the union also be publishing more detailed guidance re specific measures needed to satisfy Test 4 in particular, re mitigation of Covid risks?

😱😱😱Baldness a perfect predictor of severity of Covid-19 infection: “79 per cent of the men suffering with Covid-19 in three Madrid hospitals were bald [against] background rate of baldness…between 31–53 per cent.”

June 4

“The likelihood that approximately 40% to 45% of those infected with SARS-CoV-2 will remain asymptomatic suggests that the virus might have greater potential than previously estimated to spread silently and deeply through human populations.” 1/

Phased full re-opening of schools in Israel in 1st half of May followed by a “superspreader” event in a high school & the closure of a number of schools with infections. 9 closed yesterday. c. 7k quarantines associated w school infections. 1/

June 3

Imperial’s Neil Ferguson: UK probably to remain at current 8k daily infection level till Sept & implies risk of worsening thereafter, if lockdown eased further when we “move into the time of year when respiratory viruses tend to transmit slightly better”.

🚨Everyone in UK higher ed needs to memorise the red-underlined sentence👇in this joint @UCEA1 & @ucu statement of ‘Principles for working safely on campus during the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic’. These are MINIMUM standards to achieve. 1/

June 2

According to aHR (adjusted hazard ratio) column in Table A2 of PHE’s just-released “Disparities in the risk and outcomes of COVID-19”👇, age is a MUCH bigger risk of death factor than ethnicity, gender, or deprivation quintile among working age people. [1/2]

May 31

.@p_openshaw speaks on @AndrewMarr9 of “alarming” things they’ve been learning of serious long-term after-effects of Covid-19, including among many who thought they had fully recovered.👇

May 30

The UK government’s response to concerns regarding airborne Covid-19 transmission in courtrooms is alarming👇. It indicates that they’re ignoring an increasing body of evidence of such transmission. 1/10

May 29

An account of a series of catastrophic errors of judgement over care homes, in light of which why should we trust the government’s guidance & risk assessment over re-opening schools & universities?

May 28

Oxford epidemiology prof David Hunter say world divides into those that suppresed virus to near extinction — “South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand and perhaps China” — & those such as the UK that will face large #’s of infection long term. 1/

May 26

An extraordinary data-rich, detailed & frightening 6k word piece on the financial exposure of UK universities to coronavirus losses👇. See what’s in store for yours under a plausible scenario. By @xtophercook (formerly policy editor for @BBCNewsnight).

May 25

Apparently, Sweden’s celebrated state epidemiologist, Dr Anders Tegnell, was clueless about the existence & extent of Covid-19 outbreaks in schools. See excerpt👇from linked article from Science. 1/

May 24

Last night I used my ration of free Times articles to read this piece & I’d highly recommend it to others. I completely agree with @anandMenon1's “Daming on the delays in imposing lockdown”. See his tweets below for some key points.

Early local low-tech contact tracing key to Japan’s success in controlling spread of Covid-19 — now below 50 new daily infections, compared to UK c. 3k new daily infections. Note also UK’s contrasting lack of initiative on testing.👇 1/

May 23

.@UniofOxford prof Deborah Cameron notes👇a key respect in which small group teaching is a greater Covid risk than large lectures, casting doubt on @Cambridge_Uni’s moving large lectures online while keeping small group teaching in person. (@AlistairJarvis @michelledonelan) 1/

May 22

The so-called three ‘big wins’👇are things @USSEmployers would have agreed to in November, in exchange for calling off the strikes over #USS. 1/

Communication from @ucu to members regarding branch consultations on Four Fights & #USS is utterly shambolic. Email to members from GS @DrJoGrady to announce this arrives in our inboxes on a Saturday evening. 1/

South Korea gets the importance of properly ventilated spaces for exam-taking. This is how 18,000 people across the country sat a qualifying insurance exam on 25 April.👇1/

Highly troubling chart of high death rate of UK healthcare workers, in comparison with other countries. 1/

May 21

New Edinburgh study appears to imply that FFP2 (N95) face masks worn by all in a classroom would be very effective at reducing the risk of Covid-19 infection. It appears that surgical mask & typical handmade cloth masks would be much less effective. 1/

May 19

Notre Dame is the latest example of a US university that is devoting serious planning & resources to making their campus safe for in person instruction. 1/

May 17

🚨🚨🚨@ucu is now consulting w branches on whether to launch a new industrial action ballot over #USS by the end of June, with the ballot closing in September, so it will be possible to resume industrial action at the start of the autumn term. 1/

May 16

The problem with face to face teaching in small classrooms👇. 1/

May 13

An important thread, documenting our growing knowledge of serious, long-lasting risks & debility arising in the 80% of Covid-19 infections that have been characterised as ‘mild’. 1/

May 12

This👇on coronavirus transmission in buses & other confined spaces, which I posted yesterday, has recently become my most ‘viral’ tweet, viewed 262,000 times. 2nd-5th most viral tweets in thread below. 1/

May 11

The high number of deaths of London bus drivers is of a piece with other evidence that prolonged exposure in enclosed spaces to someone infected w/ coronavirus is unsafe. 2 metre social distancing won’t make buses, the tube, classrooms, or shared offices safe. 1/10

I fully agree👇. The “crappy” revolutionary student politics of @ucu’s NEC — their unrealistic demands, misrepresentation of fact & disastrous call for 22 days of strikes — have undermined the effectiveness of the union when we most need one.

May 8

A central bank is like an academic who can award marks, with no upper numerical limit, to her students. She doesn’t need to borrow from or tax others to acquire these marks. She simply issues them. Her only worry is grade inflation. (@alexxdouglas) 1/

Hard not to conclude, from 2 US CDC articles, that extended periods of time in classrooms, seminar rooms & lecture theatres will remain unsafe, absent an effective vaccination or treatment (so probably throughout 2020–21). 1st: 1/

May 5

.@ucu NEC Operation Make GS @DrJoGrady a Laughing Stock: direct her to write PM letter calling for massive increase in HE funding, far beyond Covid losses, paid via cancellation of Trident & ring-fenced 2%+ increases in income tax of those earning £30k+.🤦‍♂️

The plea for more govt funding involves VC public admission that overseas fees pay for more than the cost of teaching them. They also cross-subsidise research. How will OS students receive such admission that UK higher ed treats them as cash cows? 2/

April 30

A genuine act of solidarity: permanent faculty agreeing to fund the petitioned👇measures for NTT faculty & graduate students via pay reductions &/or furloughing of permanent faculty, where unrestricted endowments are insufficient to fund this. 1/

April 28

Fascinating blog post👇by UCU HEC member @drmcarley, which sheds light on HEC’s recent decision, which puzzled many, to reject a resolution ‘To direct the General Secretary to fund data science modelling of student number controls mechanisms for UK HE’. 1/

April 26

A preposterous attempt by @UCULeft to cling to power after having lost their controlling majority of @ucu’s NEC & HEC at the last election👇. 1/

April 24

In a book published in 1995, David Blake says 1/60th final salary = 1/80th final salary plus lump sum👇. Assuming lump sum is 3x pension, this implies that £9 of lump sum converts to £1 of pension income. Was it so inexpensive to convert lump sum to pension back then? 1/

A sensible proposal from the former universities secretary to help stem the huge anticipated drop in enrolment of overeas students: four-year post-study work visa & path to UK citizenship. #HospitableEnvironment

April 23

.@BBCr4today will include a segment which asks: “Is the government right to take a tough line on not bailing out universities with a multimillion pound rescue package?” 1/

April 18

🚨🚨🚨Call to Fellows of Oxford & Cambridge Colleges to make sure your institution supports permanent #USS rule change requiring Trustee consent to withdraw from scheme, in consultation👇that closes on 1 May. (Tagging @OxfordUCU & @CambridgeUCU) 1/

Yesterday #USS released a document addressing a discrepancy, which @Sam_Marsh101 discusses in this tweet👇& the tweets below it, in their discount rate for a portfolio which cancels de-risking. 1/

April 11

This tweet rests on a misunderstanding of the politics👇. 1/ So-called ‘low skilled workers’ supported the Tories & Brexit. And now Priti Patel is delivering the restrictions on competition for their jobs by migrants that they favoured. 2/2

April 9

Some thoughts on this long, informative thread by @Sam_Marsh101👇. I’ll limit myself here to comments on the decision to plough ahead w the as at 31 March 2020 valuation. 1/

April 6

In response to #USS’s invitation to members to submit questions for them to answer in a video on the 2020 valuation on Thursday, I’ve submitted 2 questions👇, which identify problems w their measures of short-term & long-term risk. 1/

April 3

Question to @RedActuary &@Derek_Benstead: how robust to pessimistic adjustment of assumptions in light of current event is your projection that #USS’s DB scheme will be cashflow positive for 50 years at 26% ‘no detriment’ contribution level? 1/

Simple question to @henryhtapper, @kevinwesbroom & @Dennis_Leech who advocate postponing the 31 Mar 2020 valuation to the legally required date of no later than 31 Mar 2021: 1/

April 1

According to this @UCUleft post from yesterday, the higher education sector is teetering on the brink of insolvency. 1/

March 31

.@ucu branches & members are calling for a suspension or staggering of pay deductions for days on strike, on grounds that members are now working overtime & otherwise going above & beyond the call of duty to address the coronavirus crisis. E.g.👇 1/

March 27

Bruce, did you mean to write #USS, not @UniversitiesUK? If not, could you explain the relevance of your claim about bad faith on the part of UUK to USS’s decision to stick to a March 2020 valuation?

March 23

But I thought Tory ministers regarded the marketisation of higher education, competition & the pursuit of self-interest as forces for the good. Adam Smith, butchers & all that.

#USS has released a 10 March webinar discussion w @USSEmployers, in light of which I predict PwC will soon downgrade employer covenant from “strong” to “tending to strong”, which will significantly increase the cost of providing DB pensions. 1/

As of 12 March, #USS was running a £12.1 bn deficit, based on a ‘gilts-plus’ monitoring of the assumptions of the 31 March 2018 valuation. Funding level = 85% (assets/technical provisions liabities). 1/

The 31 Mar valuation will be very challenging for #USS, but in drawing on just 2 pensions experts — @JohnRalfe1 & Bernard Casey — @jgro_the’s piece lacks balance, as these 2 have similar perspectives, which are pro-IDC & highly sceptical of DB. 1/

Click and read upwards for comments on decline in overseas enrolment: £6k for a year of fulltime online is on a par with what the Open University charges, which is £3k for a year of part time for a 6 year degree:

March 22

Click and read upwards for comments on the regulatory hardening of the DB promise: But, according to an impeccable source, that DB promise has hardened significantly over the past 40 years:

In light of impending coronavirus global recession/depression, expected returns on Local Govt Pension Scheme portfolios downgraded to 4.9% p.a. for next 10–15 years, as against historical 8% p.a. returns. 1/

#USS ticks all 3 “damage already done” boxes:
✔️March 2020 valuation
✔️Underhedged interest rates
✔️Withdrawal of Trinity College placed covenant on “negative watch” even before coronavirus fears of drop in overseas tuition fee income

March 21

🚨🚨🚨The Thermidorian reaction against @ucu’s HEC: watch as @HannahQuirk1 politely eviscerates @UcuLeft HEC vice chair @JomcneillUCU for her ill-judged attack on the integrity of Quirk’s @KCL_UCU branch. Click👇read upwards.👏👏👏 1/9

March 20

How the default USS DC funds have performed since the 7 Feb date of Jan payroll deductions: 1/

March 19

.@ucu JNC negotiator @Sam_Marsh101 characterises Galvin’s communication as a “scare email[] to VCs”. If, however, JosephineCumbo’s quotations are representative, Sam’s characterisation is pretty clearly inaccurate & misleading. 2/

March 17

Comments here and elsewhere on a thread on the extent to which CDC involves cross-subsidy by different cohorts, even in a scheme closed to future accrual.